England Just Needs to Beat Panama. What Could Go Wrong?
England still controls Group L after a frustrating draw with Ghana, but the path only stays favorable if the Three Lions handle Panama. If not, prepare for calamity.
Just beat Panama and you’re first.
Simple enough, right?
England’s path out of Group L remains remarkably straightforward despite a frustrating scoreless draw against Ghana on Tuesday evening in Foxborough. Win the group-stage finale against Panama and the Three Lions will almost certainly claim first place. No calculators. No scoreboard watching. No praying for favors from somebody else. Just win the game in front of you and everything will be better than a sausage roll at Greggs. (That is a correct English reference, right? I’m trying my best over here.)
Of course, this is England we’re talking about. Nothing — and I mean absolutely nothing — is ever that simple.
Listen, every team is capable of putting up a dud at the World Cup. The odds of that occurring become exponentially higher when facing an opponent that’s more than content to park the bus and defend its butt off for 90 minutes. Ghana arrived in Massachusetts with a clear game plan and executed it brilliantly. England dominated possession, controlled territory and spent most of the evening camped out in the attacking third. Yet for all that control — and this is the funny thing about football — England never found the breakthrough it so desperately was seeking. As John Strong noted during the FOX broadcast, this wasn’t the first time the English had experienced some difficulties in Massachusetts.
It’s not like England didn’t have plenty of opportunities to win the match. Harry Kane’s late chance is the one that will haunt England fans until the Panama game rolls around. It was the type of opportunity that you’d expect the captain to bury nine times out of 10. Put that exact ball on his boot 100 times and he launches it into the back of the net more often than not. Instead, he sailed it into the stands. Sound familiar?
What I can’t stop thinking about, though, is a moment on the other end of the field. In the 79th minute, Ghana’s Prince Adu appeared to be taken down on a breakaway in what looked like a fairly obvious foul. Unless I’m missing something, England got away with one there. Had the referee pointed to the spot — and had VAR agreed — Ghana would’ve been awarded a penalty with a chance to take the lead in the waning minutes of the game. Maybe they score there, sending the entire nation of Ghana into a celebration the likes of which we’ve never seen. Maybe they don’t, giving England new life. We never got to see the fruits of it, meaning this match will always have a “what if?” attached to it in my mind. Because there’s a version of this contest where England walked away with zero points and a full-blown crisis on its hands.
Instead, the Three Lions escaped with a draw and remain in an excellent position moving forward. That’s important because winning this group matters — a lot.
The World Cup is difficult enough without voluntarily making the road harder on yourself. Finishing first in Group L would likely set England up with a Round of 32 matchup against DR Congo or Senegal before a potential Round of 16 meeting with either Mexico or (maybe) Scotland. Frankly, that’s a pretty favorable draw. Also, give me England versus Scotland at a World Cup any day of the week. The history, the tension and the inevitable overreaction from both sides would make for incredible theater. More importantly, though, it would represent a pathway that avoids some of the tournament’s bigger sharks during the early knockout rounds.
The alternative isn’t nearly as appealing. If England somehow stumbles against Panama and finishes second in the group, a matchup with either Colombia or Portugal likely awaits in Toronto on July 2. That’s a much different proposition. Both teams possess the type of attacking talent — Portugal especially — capable of ending a World Cup dream in 90 minutes. That’s why Tuesday’s draw, while disappointing, doesn’t actually change all that much other than the timeline. England still controls its own destiny.
The reason the path matters so much is because England really needs this World Cup. It’s been 60 long years since football came home for the one and only time. According to the English, the sport has been wandering through the wilderness ever since. This year’s World Cup provides them with an excellent chance to reclaim their beloved prize. And if England can be gifted a runway that allows it to build confidence and momentum throughout the knockout rounds, that’s probably the best-case scenario. All it has to do to secure that is beat Panama.
Easy, right?
Ehh, maybe. Because nothing is ever easy for England.
Part of Tuesday’s disappointment stems from the fact that England may have received a bit too much fanfare after its opening victory over Croatia. Honestly, I’m guilty of that too. I was practically parading the World Cup trophy through the streets of London after the 4-2 win. A little regression was likely — that’s just how tournaments work. But it still would’ve been nice to score a goal or two, for goodness sake! I don’t think that’s an unreasonable request when you finish with 80% possession.
To be fair, I’m not going to be overly harsh about the result. Ghana isn’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. There is legitimate talent throughout that roster, and any nation capable of defending that compactly is going to create problems. Still, Ghana isn’t England! That’s what makes the draw feel disappointing. England entered the match as the better team on paper and spent most of the evening looking like the better team on the field. The final score just didn’t reflect it. That’s sports.
Perhaps the most amusing part of Tuesday’s draw, however, is that it continued a trend that feels almost impossible to explain. England has now followed the exact same script in four consecutive major tournaments. At Euro 2020, England won its opener before drawing 0-0 in its second match. The same thing happened at the 2022 World Cup. Then it happened again at Euro 2024. And now, under Thomas Tuchel rather than Gareth Southgate, England has once again opened with a victory before stumbling to a scoreless draw in Game 2. Hilarious. England loves making life difficult for itself.
If there was a positive takeaway beyond the point itself, it was the defense. Ghana didn’t test England very often, but I thought the back line looked more composed than it did against Croatia. That’s admittedly a small sample size, but improvement is improvement. The bigger concern might actually be Declan Rice, who picked up a yellow card and now enters the Panama match walking a disciplinary tightrope. (He also appears to be nursing some sort of injury, which is expected after he played a bajillion games this past season for Arsenal.) England can ill afford to lose one of its most important midfielders heading into the knockout rounds.
But remember, everything is fine so long as the Three Lions take down Panama. The goal of this tournament — a championship — is still squarely in front of them. Beat Panama and the dream of finally bringing football home is still alive.
Simple enough, right?
