WARNING: RANT INCOMING. PREPARE YOURSELVES ACCORDINGLY.
For the third consecutive season, the Dallas Stars made the Western Conference Final. And for the third straight year, it sure looks like the Stars are going to be heading home one round short of the Stanley Cup Final.
It’s disappointing, to say the least. The last two Western Conference Final losses were tough but also somewhat palatable. Vegas was very good in 2023 and subsequently went on to win the Cup. Edmonton straight up outplayed the Stars through Games 3-6 in last year’s edition, and while it wasn’t a good time at all, there were at least some clear signs of what Dallas needed to improve upon in the next campaign should it want to achieve its goals.
Obviously, things have not changed from last year’s loss to this season’s 3-1 series deficit. The power play that was so absent in last year’s series has been almost nonexistent since the third period of Game 1. Correction, it’s been a complete non-factor, as the Stars have scored just one lone goal on special teams—Jason Robertson’s goal from the slot in the second period of Game 4—since that third period barrage in the series’ opening contest.
This potential Western Conference Final loss is definitely more disappointing than the last two. The Stars went all in for this year’s run at a Cup, with the acquisitions of Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund reinforcing the idea that the 2024-25 campaign was a make-or-break year for Dallas. If they can’t win three games in a row against the potent Oilers, then Rantanen and Granlund will have ultimately made no difference.
You might be screaming at me that it isn’t over until it’s over. Trust me, I hear you. “It ain’t over until the fat lady sings” and all that jazz. But given the Stars’ performance over the past three games, it’s just really tough for me to see a path to ultimately winning this series.
I’ll entertain the thought of it though because it’s a nice proposition. And while it will be tough, it has been done before. If, and it’s a big if, Dallas is to mount a furious comeback from down 3-1, the stars for the Stars need to shine, and they need to shine brightly. Right now, the Oilers’ best players are coming alive when everything matters the most. Connor McDavid scored two goals in Game 3, with Leon Draisaitl also having two tallies over the first four contests. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on an unreal heater, with nine points through two goals and seven assists against Dallas.
That’s what the Stars are up against, and Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, Mikael Granlund, and all the other awesome players that make up the roster need to pick up the pace, and they need to pick it up now.
The Stars are built to be a deep team that gets scoring from all over the ice. Right now, that is not the case, and frankly, it hasn’t been the case the entire postseason. Rantanen was the sole reason that Dallas got past the Avalanche and was a major factor in why the Jets were disposed of in six games. Mikael Granlund, Rantanen’s Finnish counterpart, was excellent with his hat trick against Winnipeg in Game 4 of that series but has been practically invisible against Edmonton. Other than that, the scoring has been few and far between, which is just the same old story from a year ago. Sigh.
We will see if Dallas can rewrite the history books and overcome the enormous odds that are in front of them. If they do, the 2024-25 Dallas Stars will be remembered fondly for years to come. If they don’t, then this will just be another chapter in a long book that is filled with disappointing end-of-season results.
Okay, there’s my little mini-rant about why everything is a disaster. Let’s now dive into what actually happened in Game 4 of Stars-Oilers and why the signs are not looking good for the team from the Lone Star State.
Dallas started out the game with their hair on fire, racking up seven shots on net in the early going while Edmonton had only two. The chances were definitely there, but Stuart Skinner is just the best goalie on the planet right now, and nothing is getting past him. Tough scenes.
Right after the Stars had put up several good chances in a row, Jamie Benn drew a horrifically timed tripping penalty in the offensive zone. It was yet another poor play from the Dallas captain, who has played below his pay grade for the vast majority of the playoffs.
Tasked with stopping an Oilers power play that had scored in every game of the series, the Stars put up a valiant effort before Leon Draisaitl found his favorite spot and beat Jake Oettinger on the near post to put Edmonton up 1-0. For the 14th time this postseason, the Stars had let in the first goal. I would not advise doing this.
It was sometime before this that Roope Hintz, who was the victim of a dirty (maybe?) slash by Darnell Nurse in the waning moments of Game 2 that forced him to miss Game 3, was slashed on the same foot by Evan Bouchard away from the play. Fortunately, Hintz was fine, but the play was still so dirty, and the fact that a penalty wasn’t called is egregious. But it’s par for the course, as the league and its officials have continuously failed to protect the players throughout this postseason.
Anyway, down by a goal, the Stars continued to mount extreme pressure on Skinner and the Oilers with nothing to show for it throughout the rest of the first period. A penalty by Edmonton with seven seconds left in the frame gave the Stars a little bit of hope for the start of the second, but when that power play came up empty, things were starting to look bleak early for Dallas.
That first period was an encapsulation of the series as a whole in a lot of ways. Chances were plentiful for the Stars, yet it was Edmonton who had a lead at the end of it.
Here are some statistics, via Natural Stat Trick, that give a glimpse at just how different this series could be if Dallas was actually capitalizing on the opportunities presented to them: Through the first four WCF games, Dallas leads the expected goals 10.7 to 8.7 during 5v5 hockey. The actual goals favor Edmonton 9-3, however. Throughout all situations, the Stars still hold the advantage at 14.4 to 14.0. Yet again, the Oilers have all the riches, scoring 16 goals compared to Dallas’ eight.
Back to the game. Another Edmonton penalty later in the second awarded the Stars another chance, and they cashed in, thanks to a beautiful shot by Jason Robertson from the slot. The game was tied, and the Stars had life.
Sports, unfortunately, can change on a whim. After Mason Marchment committed a rash interference penalty, the Edmonton man advantage kicked into high gear, with Corey Perry — a wily veteran who’s been a pain in the side of pretty much every team in the league for his entire career — scoring a wide-open goal right in front of the net after a wonderful pass from Nugent-Hopkins (who else, right).
Just like that, the Stars were losing again, and that’s where they’d be for the rest of the game.
Edmonton played the third period beautifully, putting on a masterclass on how to keep a lead in the game’s final 20 minutes of action. The neutral zone was on lockdown as the Stars could barely get any clean entries across the blue line. Through the first eight minutes of the third period, Dallas had just one measly shot on goal. Even with their playoff lives on the brink, the Stars could barely muster any resistance.
With two and a half minutes to go, Jake Oettinger was pulled from his crease. Almost immediately, the Oilers buried an empty-netter to put the game away. Another goal with the netminder pulled followed, and that was that. The Stars had lost 4-1 and were down 3-1 in the series.
The Stars were outshot 13-4 in the third period, which is simply not good enough. When the lights have gotten the brightest here in the Western Conference Final, the Stars have continually failed to show up. It’s such a shame, especially since that’s when Dallas had played its best through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Dallas’ season is on the line in Game 5. It’ll be win-or-go-home for Dallas on Thursday night at the American Airlines Center. Somebody is going to have to step up, because if not, the boys will be packing up their bags and heading off to Cancun.
2 keys to victory. 1. Stars score first. 2 Don’t let Edmonton score. Easy peezy