The mission was simple: win Game 2 at home against the Edmonton Oilers.
The Stars couldn’t do that.
With the series tied at 1-1, the task became even clearer: take Game 3 on the road.
The Stars couldn’t do that either.
It’s safe to say that the last two games Dallas has played have been complete disasters for two completely different reasons. In Game 2, the Oilers simply outplayed the Stars in what was a must-win game for them. Edmonton was better in every facet, and it showed in the box score.
Roope Hintz’s injury in the third period only made matters worse for Dallas. If the slashing penalty committed by Darnell Nurse on Hintz had been called a major instead of a minor, would the Stars have mounted a comeback and won the game? Probably not. It definitely wouldn’t have made up for the loss of their top-line center, who ended up not playing in Game 3, despite Oilers fans online crying wolf that Hintz was faking just to draw a major penalty (give me a break).
If the Stars gave it their best effort, even without Hintz, they were probably going to come out on top in any game. That’s just how good they are. So, when the Stars put up a much better performance, at least according to the eye test and the statistics, they beat Edmonton yesterday, right?
Nope. They lost 6-1 in what was a downright beatdown of epic proportions.
There’s no doubt that the Stars thoroughly outplayed the Oilers for much of the game, particularly in the second period when the shot disparity was 21-7 in favor of Dallas. Throughout the entirety of the game, the Stars put up 34 shots compared to Edmonton’s 24. And yet, only one puck hit the back of the net for Dallas.
The difference in the game was simple: one team had Connor McDavid, and the other did not.
McDavid is hands down the best player in the world and the best hockey talent I’ve seen with my own two eyes. His speed and puck handling, combined with his expert scoring ability, make him pretty much unstoppable. There are multiple times throughout every game of these playoffs where he’s taken on multiple defenders on a rush — much like Mikko Rantanen did in Game 7 against the Avalanche a couple of weeks ago — and then created a scoring opportunity out of thin air. This overtime winner against the Vegas Golden Knights from last round comes to mind:
He scored two goals yesterday, including one on a three-on-one breakaway to put Edmonton up 2-0. Then in the second period, with the Oilers on their heels and now only up by one goal, McDavid buried the metaphorical dagger from the right circle.
Add on several other Edmonton goals that came via the rush, which was Dallas’ kryptonite against these same Oilers last season in the Western Conference Final, and the score got really out of hand. But sometimes sports are weird, and the score doesn’t tell the full story, which was very much the case yesterday.
Take a look at MoneyPuck’s “Deserve to Win O’Meter,” which provides a glimpse at how the game was closer than the scoreboard suggests:
You can also take that graph with a grain of salt. It is just a computer running a bunch of simulations based on the statistics from the actual game, and the play happening on the ice matters much more. The one statistic it probably takes into account the most is expected goals. If victories were awarded based on that, then Dallas would be up 2-1 in the series, with the Stars having 2.97 expected goals yesterday compared to Edmonton’s 2.36.
But it still tells us that Dallas didn’t play terribly; it just got beaten by McDavid and some excellent goalkeeping by Oilers’ keeper Stuart Skinner.
Let’s talk about Skinner, who, in his first two games of the playoffs against the Los Angeles Kings, let in 12 goals. He was subsequently benched for backup Calvin Pickard and only got the job back after Pickard suffered an injury.
Since his return, Skinner has been excellent, and his performance in the last two games against the Stars, where he’s allowed just one goal on 59 shots, is reminiscent of his fantastic play in the Western Conference Final last season. If he’s going to play like this for the remainder of the series, then the Stars are going to have their hands full.
This piece has been very Oilers-heavy, and that’s the problem for the Stars right now. Nobody is stepping up. Save for a third period where they scored five goals in Game 1, the Stars have just two goals in this series. Rantanen has been pretty much invisible. Wyatt Johnston is a -16 in the playoffs, which is last in the league. Jason Robertson has only one goal. The Stars’ forward depth needs to get it going, because if not, they’ll be hitting the golf course very soon.
On Friday morning, I called for the Stars to take command and win Game 2. They obviously didn’t do that, and they obviously didn’t win Game 3. So, with a must-win Game 4 looming, it’s time for Dallas to dig deep.
The season hangs in the balance in Edmonton tomorrow night. If they win, they can head back to Dallas with the series even at 2-2, with two more games at home potentially on the docket. If they lose, they must reel off three consecutive wins against a team that employs Connor McDavid. Either route is tough, but it must be done if the quest for Dallas’ first Stanley Cup since 1999 is to be completed.