Previewing and projecting the AL West
The Mariners can pitch, the Rangers can hit, and the Astros are a massive question mark.
Opening Day is finally here. Today’s a day where food will taste a little better, water will be a little sweeter, and everybody will be a little nicer. The long offseason is over and baseball is back in our lives for the next six months. Oh, how sweet it is.
With the festivities upon us, it’s time we wrap up our division previews with the AL West. If you missed the previews of the National League and the American League’s East and Central divisions, you can check that out at the links below.
So, let’s get this party started. Here’s my preview and projection of the AL West.
2024 Standings:
Houston Astros (88-73)
Seattle Mariners (85-77)
Texas Rangers (78-84)
Oakland Athletics (69-93)
Los Angeles Angels (63-99)
FanGraphs Projected Standings for 2025 (with projected records):
Seattle Mariners (85-77)
Houston Astros (84-78)
Texas Rangers (84-78)
Athletics (76-86)
Los Angeles Angels (75-87)
There is a case to be made that the AL West will be the most competitive division in MLB this season. The top four teams from a year ago all believe they've positioned themselves to compete in 2025. And with three of the teams — the Mariners, Astros, and Rangers — all having greater than 50% odds to make the postseason, at least according to FanGraphs, the AL West could be the division that represents the American League in the World Series.
Los Angeles Angels
Let's start in sunny Southern California, where the Los Angeles Angels have consistently failed to put a winning team on the field. The Angels were blessed with two of the greatest talents of this generation in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani and still couldn't build a competitive winner behind them. Instead, the Angels haven't reached the playoffs since 2014, the longest drought in baseball.
With the departure of Ohtani to the crosstown Dodgers prior to last season and Trout's continued injury concerns, there isn't much hope in Anaheim right now. It's gotten so bleak that manager Ron Washington instituted a no phone policy in the locker room to try and spark some team bonding. Hey, I'm not bashing the policy because I think it could actually be quite productive in terms of team building, but will it make the Angels a better baseball club? I don't think so.
The outlook is not good, but that didn't stop the Angels from trying. They were one of the busiest teams this past winter, signing Jorge Soler, Yusei Kikuchi, Travis d'Arnaud, Yoán Moncada, and Kenley Jansen. In-house pieces like Zach Neto, who had a breakout year in 2024, Nolan Schanuel, and Jo Adell could all be major contributors in a lineup that's desperately searching for impact bats.
How the Angels do relies on how much they can rely on Trout to be on the field. It's been a long time since he was a consistent presence at Angel Stadium — he played in 36 games in 2021, 119 in 2022, and then just 82 and 29 in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The three-time MVP winner needs to play for the Angels to be a winner. Unfortunately for Trout and the Angels, that's not something that can be counted on at the moment.
Athletics
Opening Day is one of the most exciting and important days on the baseball calendar. Seeing one's team trot out onto the field for the first game of the season will well up emotions in even the most casual fan. It's a spectacle unlike any other, and it's extremely special to all those who care deeply about it. But for the Athletics, Opening Day just hits different this year.
The A's were stolen from the city of Oakland. Not by a new ownership group looking to move the team to another place. Not by government officials in Oakland who wanted nothing to do with the organization. Not even by MLB itself. No, the A's decided to remove themselves from one of the most passionate fan bases baseball has to offer, all because of greed.
While the A's start their season just like everybody else today, it's not the same. Instead of playing in a big-league ballpark, they'll be playing at Sutter Health Park, the home of the Sacramento River Cats, the San Francisco Giants' Triple-A affiliate. It's a minor league stadium that seats just 14,000 spectators. But it's where the A's will call home for at least the next several years as they await final construction on a ballpark in Las Vegas, the alleged final destination of the franchise.
Historically, this shouldn't come as a surprise. The A's have moved a lot over their history, starting out in Philadelphia in 1901 before leaving for Kansas City in 1954. The team was only in Missouri for a little over a decade, shipping off to Oakland in 1968. Their stay in the Bay Area was the longest that the franchise had been in one place, until this season, when the A's packed up their bags and moved temporarily to Sacramento.
It's a sad tale. How many games the team wins or loses is almost second fiddle to the fact that they are a transient baseball team in search of a permanent home.
But the A's will play baseball games this season with actual baseball players who want to win. And I like their chances, at least compared to recent Athletics' campaigns. After being horrific in 2023, the A's surprised the world with a 69 win that featured a second half where the team played .500 baseball. It was just the type of improvement A's fans desired. Now, with a roster that appears to be on the edge of competitiveness, there's still some things to be excited about despite the grim circumstances.
Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler are the key cogs of the machine. Rooker is a certified hitter. He followed up his breakout 2023 season where he hit 30 homers with an even more impressive 2024 that featured him slashing .293/.365/.562 (.927 OPS). He hit 39 homers and drove in 112 runs. Butler, while not yet at the level of Rooker, looks poised to build on his successful 2024 where he had an .807 OPS and hit 22 home runs. A's fans are certainly excited to see those guys continue to do their thing here in 2025.
The starting rotation got retooled as well, with Luis Severino coming from in free agency and Jeffrey Springs coming over via a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. Both those players should be able to provide the A's with some quality innings. Mason Miller leads a bullpen that also added during the offseason with the signing of former Rangers closer José Leclerc.
The A's probably haven't hit their contention window just yet, but I think they're getting close. Just a couple more seasons perhaps and the A's will be back in the spotlight.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners can really pitch. Here's their starting rotation from last season:
Logan Gilbert (33 GS, 208.2 IP, 3.23 ERA)
George Kirby (33 GS, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA)
Bryce Miller (31 GS, 180.1 IP, 2.94 ERA)
Luis Castillo (30 GS, 175.1 IP, 3.64 ERA)
Bryan Woo (22 GS, 121.1 IP, 2.89 ERA)
You'd think that throwing out that five-man rotation would be enough to yield results good enough to win a World Series any given year. That's not the case, though, when the offense can't hit to save their lives. The Mariners finished below the league average in pretty much every important offensive statistic. When you've built a pitching staff that can shut it down any day of the week, it's imperative to supplement it with a good enough lineup. Because what good is awesome pitching if the team isn't scoring any runs?
As such, the Mariners missed the postseason for the second consecutive season. Seattle fans are used to disappointment — the Mariners have yet to win a World Series — but not taking advantage of this pitching staff the past two years would be enough to push any rational fan over the edge. Personally, I'd be pining for the front office to do something to elevate the offense's ceiling. Anything would help. Well, the Mariners ignored those cries for action. They did essentially nothing.
That might be selling them a tad short. They did sign Donovan Solano after all! That's got to count for something! It really doesn't. Instead, the Mariners are counting on the core group of Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, and Cal Raleigh to figure it out and provide the offensive pop that they're capable of. They'll likely need more than that, however. Those three players were the only above-average hitters in the lineup according to OPS+ last season with the rest of the group lagging far behind. It's going to take a group effort to get the Mariners back over the hump, at least offensively.
Once again, I'd count on the pitching being fantastic. While George Kirby is starting the season the IL, the remaining foursome of Gilbert, Miller, Castillo, and Woo should be enough to keep the ship afloat until Kirby is ready to return to the mound.
It really is such a shame that the Mariners front office did nothing to improve the team this past offseason, other than perhaps praying that the players already on the roster just get better. Hey, it's a strategy that has some merit, but not one that's likely to pay off given the rest of the talent in the division.
Houston Astros
The AL West has been the Astros' division to lose for almost a decade. Besides the 2020 season that was shortened to 60 games due to COVID, the Astros have won seven consecutive division crowns dating back to 2017. During that span, the team has won two World Series (one legitimate, one not) and appeared in the ALCS in every year except last, where they were bounced in the Wild Card Round by the Detroit Tigers.
That Wild Card exit might've been a signal that times are changing, as the team made some major moves during the offseason. Instead of extending star OF Kyle Tucker, the Astros traded him away to the Chicago Cubs for 3B Isaac Paredes, RHP Hayden Wesneski, and top prospect Cam Smith (more on him in a bit). They also opted to not re-sign 3B Alex Bregman, who had been with the organization since he was picked second overall in the 2015 MLB Draft.
The changes keep coming. Franchise legend Jose Altuve, who's played second base for his entire big league career, is playing left field this season. It's a move that makes sense for a couple of different reasons: 1) Altuve's infield defense has progressively gotten worse over the past several seasons. 2) Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, the two best pitchers on the Astros, have some of the highest ground-ball rates of any hurler in MLB. So, it doesn't make sense to have a poor defender manning second base when there's probably going to be a ton of ground balls heading his way. 3) Because of the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park (it'll always be Minute Maid Park to me), there isn't a lot of ground to cover in left field in Houston. The Astros' thinking is that even if Altuve is not a good outfield defender, it still benefits them more to put a sturdy defensive second basemen in the lineup everyday rather than a poor one.
Altuve position switches aside, Houston is going to look extremely different this year for better or worse. Will Paredes be able to match the production that Bregman was able to bring? Will new first basemen Christian Walker boost the offense? And how does Cam Smith play into all of this?
Prior to being acquired by the Astros in the Tucker trade, Smith was not regarded as a player that would be making an appearance in the majors until, at the earliest, late this season. That changed when he arrived in Florida for spring training where he absolutely raked, slashing .342/.419/.711 (1.130 OPS) in 38 at-bats. That performance made Houston's front office perk up in their seats and quickly change plans. A couple days ago, it was announced that Smith made the Astros' Opening Day roster in an extremely emotional video posted to the team's social media accounts.
If Smith can be as advertised, the lineup becomes extremely deep. Yordan Alvarez is guaranteed to be a beast. Altuve, while regressing, still has a lot of pop. Paredes and Walker should be good additions into the lineup. Jeremy Peña, who hasn't been quite as awesome as was expected following his fantastic 2022 season where he won World Series MVP, still has a ton of potential. There's no doubt that the Astros, at least on paper, are not as good as in past years. Losing the core of George Springer, Carlos Correa, Bregman, and Tucker over the course of just four seasons is a big deal. But doubting the operation down in Houston has been many people's downfall, so do it at your own risk. Somehow, someway, the Astros always find a way into the spotlight. What that means for 2025 is unknown.
Texas Rangers
Here we go. It's time for the big Rangers preview, or at least that's what I'm building it up to be in my head. The Texas Rangers are my favorite baseball team. They were my first love, and have always been my go-to choice for my favorite sports franchise. There are few things the Rangers could do to make my adoration for them dim. Even though they have flat out sucked or just been bland for the majority of my lifetime, I still have continued to support them through all the highs and lows.
My patience with the Rangers finally paid off in 2023 when the team raised the World Series trophy for the first time in franchise history. It's a moment of euphoria that is hard to describe. It's one of those few moments in my life that I wish I could go back and experience for the first time again.
Obviously the goal, for both the Rangers and myself, is to reach that high once again in 2025. So, are the Rangers ready to contend again, or will the disappointment from last season continue? Let's find out.
The lineup, when completely healthy, has the potential to be one of the best in not just the American League, but in all of baseball. It's a volatile group, however. In 2023, the Rangers' offense ranked third in OPS (.790), third in runs per game (5.44), third in home runs (233), and second in OPS+ (116). Those numbers took a sharp decline in 2024, resulting in a disappointing season that the team desperately wants to put in the rear view. If manager Bruce Bochy's tendency of having a competitive baseball team every other year continues here in 2025, then the lineup is sure to bounce back.
Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are obviously the spark that ignites the fire here. Of all the players that struggled in 2024, Semien was perhaps one of the most startling. His greatest trait is his availability — he's played in 155 or more games in eight of his 12 seasons as a major leaguer. That didn't change last year, but the production certainly did. His 2023 slash line of .276/.348/.478 (.826 OPS) dropped to .237/.308/.391 (.699 OPS) in 2024. But Semien, much like his manager, has been an every other year type of player. 2025 would be the season to return to his normal form. The Rangers are definitely counting on it.
For Seager, it's all about staying on the field. When he's available, he's one of the best players on the planet. It's just a matter of keeping him in game-ready shape. Even when he has a "down" season like he did last year, he's still a fantastic player who is poised to make the Hall of Fame when his career is said and done.
If Semien and Seager both switch it on, watch out for the top of the Rangers' lineup. It'll be lethal.
Of course, there are other key figures on the offense that need to perform in order for the team to be successful, almost none larger than Wyatt Langford and Adolis García.
Langford's rookie campaign couldn't have gone better. In 557 plate appearances, Lanford slashed .253/.325/.415 (.740 OPS) and mashed 16 home runs. He won the AL Rookie of the Month award in both August and September, becoming just the third player in Ranger history to earn the honor multiple times in a single season. His meteoric rise through the minors into the majors was noteworthy enough, but when he became one of the Rangers best hitters in 2024, everybody just sat back and watched with their jaws agape. The goal for Langford is to avoid the sophomore slump and continue to build on the foundation that he laid last season. The future outlook for the young outfielder couldn't be brighter right now and if he stays true to form, he'll be a mainstay in Arlington for years to come.
For García, it'll be difficult to get back to how good he was during 2023. No player, at least that I've ever seen, has made his presence felt in one postseason run as much as García did during that October. Man, was he awesome. Unfortunately, he regressed a lot in 2024. His mechanics got all out of whack, leading to him clocking career lows in batting average, slugging percentage, and home runs. His walk rate, which was at a career high 10.3% during the World Series season, dropped three percentage points in 2024. It was not a good summer for García, and improvements were necessary. Luckily for the Rangers, it appears some have been made. A new batting stance has yielded positive results in spring training where he's clubbed three home runs and driven in 11 runs in just 54 plate appearances. Should that production carry over into the regular season, García will be in good shape.
There are obviously many other names that could be talked about within the Rangers offensive core. New additions Jake Burger and Joc Pederson will bring a lot of pop to a lineup that was sorely missing it last season. Jonah Heim needs to have a better year to solidify himself as the long term answer at catcher. Josh Smith is one of the best utility men in the league, and will definitely be a useful piece throughout the campaign. Those are just a few of the names that will be important. If I had the time and words, I'd go on and on about how Leody Taveras is primed for a good year, or how we don't need to worry about Evan Carter's lack of progress. There will be plenty of time to discuss that and so much more throughout the season.
Enough of the offense, let's move onto the pitching side of things. In years' previous, this is where games have been lost for Texas. Pitching development has not been a strong suit for the organization, and that has beared fruit at the major league level. Rarely have home grown hurlers made their way through the minors and produced in Arlington. That appears to potentially be changing here in 2025.
Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker will both be in the starting rotation on Opening Day. The two Vanderbilt alums have great talent and potential, and could both be top pitchers if everything breaks correctly. But there's a lot of uncertainty with the two. In their brief appearances in MLB last season, the results were mixed. Leiter's stuff, particularly his fastball, is great, but it didn't always translate when the lights got bright. He also struggled to find the zone at times, leading to high pitch counts and early exits to starts. Rocker has a lot of the same issues. The slider and fastball present a deadly combo, but he had trouble locating, which is a no-go against some of the best hitters in the world. The organization clearly trusts them and wants to give them a chance to prove it. With injuries ravaging the rotation late in camp — Jon Gray and Cody Bradford both went down — Leiter and Rocker were the solution the Rangers gravitated toward. It's a lot to ask of the young bucks to go out and perform right away, but it's what's necessary if the team wants to achieve its goals in 2025.
Alongside those two young pieces is a veteran trio of starters that, when healthy (if you can't tell, health is going to be a major factor in whether or not the Rangers are successful or not) could be one of the best in the AL. Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle will be good this season; I have no qualms in claiming that right out of the gate. It's just a matter of whether they remain healthy enough to be on the field. Eovaldi has sustained several injuries during his two years as a Ranger while deGrom and Mahle both underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and were limited in 2024. It'll be interesting to see how Texas manages their innings, especially when there's currently a deficit for arms, at least ones that are capable enough of getting hitters out.
I honestly don't know how the Rangers will do. There's a path where they win 95 games and win the World Series. There's also the possibility that they are just ravaged by injuries once again and win 75 games. I just have no clue.
As the eternal optimist that I am, I'll lean towards the positive. The offense has to get closer to what it was in 2023, and the pitching can't be as injury-prone as it was last season. There's just no way, knock on wood. So, I'm picking the Rangers to win the division. I won't go as far as saying I think they'll win the World Series, although I think you could convince me.
It should be a fun season of baseball in Arlington no matter the results. There's a lot to like on this roster, hence my excitement. But as I mentioned at the top, there's nothing this team could do to make me fall out of love with them. It's unconditional. They are my team. Go Rangers!
My Projected Standings1:
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Teams I have making the postseason are in italics.