Previewing and projecting the AL East and Central
The Yankees hope to avenge their title loss, the Red Sox might be serious players, and the Royals could shock the world.
With baseball back in just one day (let's go!), it's time to continue the baseball extravaganza week here on SethStack with a complete preview of the American League's East and Central divisions. Before we dive in, a quick note for the more observant among you: Yes, the AL West is notably absent from this post. That's because tomorrow it will be getting its own dedicated preview, complete with an in-depth look at the Texas Rangers. Stay tuned for that.
Just like in yesterday's National League preview, the rules are simple: Every team gets its moment in the sun. Yes, even the White Sox. If you happened to miss that NL preview, you can read that here:
So, no more beating around the bush. In the words of the great King Henry V, "Fellas, let's go!"
American League East
2024 Standings:
New York Yankees (94-68)
Baltimore Orioles (91-71)
Boston Red Sox (81-81)
Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)
Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)
FanGraphs Projected Standings for 2025 (with projected records):
New York Yankees (86-76)
Boston Red Sox (85-77)
Baltimore Orioles (83-79)
Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
Tampa Bay Rays (81-81)
For the last several years, the AL East was often regarded as the most dominant division in baseball. However, that prestige and reputation took a bit of a hit last season, with only the New York and Yankees and Baltimore Orioles reaching the postseason, with the rest of the division lagging behind. If the preseason projections are to be believed, the AL East should return to its feared form in 2025.
Let's take a trip back to 2022. The world was still recovering from the chaos of COVID, but professional sports had already begun to return to normal. What wasn't normal, though, was the lead-up to the baseball season, where the owners locked out the players, and Opening Day had to be pushed back by a week. Lost in all that hubbub was the fact that the Toronto Blue Jays of all teams were considered to be one of, if not the favorites, to win the World Series that season. They didn't. And in 2023, they failed to reach that goal again. In 2024, they didn't even make the postseason, finishing last in the division. Now, Toronto finds itself in a precarious position. The veteran pieces that once complemented their young talent are either aging or no longer on the roster. Even some of the youth could be out the door soon, as the team and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., one of the premier stars in the league, still haven't agreed to a contract extension. If Guerrero Jr. leaves, which would be a gut punch for so many reasons, none as big as the fact that Guerrero is a Canadian citizen, would be a death sentence for this era of the Blue Jays. So, Toronto's goal for 2025 is simple: remain competitive enough to convince Vlad to stay in Canada.
Projecting how the Tampa Bay Rays will do this season is a complicated endeavor. The Rays are one of the best-run organizations in baseball, regularly competing with the sport's elite despite having a payroll far smaller than many of their rivals. That strategy didn't bear fruit in 2024, but to count out the Rays in the long run is not wise. Then, the hurricane hit. Hurricane Milton literally ripped the roof off Tropicana Field, the Rays' home field. There wasn't enough time to repair the damage done by the storm, so the Rays will play at the Yankees' spring training facility in Tampa this season. The effect of this curveball has on their performance is uncertain, but it certainly can't be ignored. Still, the Rays are poised to be more competitive with a revamped lineup (hopefully one that doesn't stink like it did last year) and a healthier rotation, which features Shane McClanahan (though he'll start the season on the IL after suffering a left triceps injury in his final start of the spring), Drew Rasmussen, Zack Littell, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, and Taj Bradley. Obviously, the key, as with a lot of teams in the American League, is clean health.
The biggest takeaways from the Baltimore Orioles' offseason are that they didn't spend any money and that Walltimore is no more. After a second-straight stinker of a performance in the postseason, the Orioles enter 2025 with an uncertain outlook. While their young talent is undeniable — Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez are just several of the key cogs in the machine for Baltimore — health concerns for Rodriguez, along with a thin rotation, could derail their season. The Orioles are perhaps the team that I have the most questions about in the AL East. Can Adley return to his All-Star form after a disappointing 2024? Will the lack of offseason action come back to bite the team in the rear? Will Jackson Holliday finally prove himself on the biggest stage? And what will the new left field dimensions at Camden Yards have on right-handed hitters? The answers to those questions will determine how far the Orioles can go in 2025.
While many teams were productive this past winter, no team improved their roster as much as the Boston Red Sox did, with the exception of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Red Sox are one of the most prominent brands in the sport, with their rivalry with the Yankees being their biggest calling card. After the Curse of the Bambino was lifted in 2004, the Red Sox quickly became one of the most successful clubs of the 21st century, winning the World Series in 2007, 2013, and 2018. But the results as of late have been disappointing. That appears to be changing this season. In December, Boston acquired Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, who, in his first full season as a starting pitcher, struck out 209 hitters while walking just 33 all in just 146 innings of work. Talk about making an impression. The Red Sox also signed former Houston Astros 3B Alex Bregman, who will reunite with his former bench coach and now manager, Alex Cora. Bregman's arrival has raised questions about the infield alignment. Will Rafael Devers, Boston's long-time third baseman, give up his position, or will Bregman find a new spot in the infield? The answer seems to be that Devers will transition to the designated hitter role, with Bregman taking over at third. Bregman's superior defensive skills paired alongside the upcoming debuts of top prospects Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer made the decision quite simple for the Red Sox brass. While Devers sees it as a slight, it's a move that puts the Red Sox in the best position to win now.
The New York Yankees, coming off a World Series loss last October, enter 2025 with the same championship expectations they always carry. For any other organization and fanbase, losing the world Series would still offer a sense of optimism. Not for the Yankees. When you've won 27 championships, only the best-of-the-best will suffice. So, are the Bronx Bombers ready to redeem themselves? Early in the offseason, it didn't look that way. Juan Soto, one of the integral parts of the Yankees' lineup during last season, bolted for the crosstown New York Mets for a record-breaking 15-year contract worth $765 million. The Yankees responded by trading for Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams and signing Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt. While Bellinger and Goldschmidt aren't Juan Soto, pairing them alongside Aaron Judge could still be enough to win a lot of games. They'll certainly need to hit a lot after it was announced that ace Gerrit Cole would be undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery. The Yankees are still loaded with talent, but are aging and prone to injuries — Giancarlo Stanton, who was instrumental in last season's World Series run, will already be starting the season on the IL. Anything less than a World Series title will appease Yankees fans, so they better figure it out.
My Projected Standings1:
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
American League Central
2024 Standings:
Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
Kansas City Royals (86-76)
Detroit Tigers (86-76)
Minnesota Twins (82-80)
Chicago White Sox (41-121)
FanGraphs Projected Standings for 2025:
Minnesota Twins (84-78)
Detroit Tigers (83-79)
Kansas City Royals (82-80)
Cleveland Guardians (79-83)
Chicago White Sox (63-99)
The AL Central was one of the most competitive divisions in baseball last season, as long as you completely forget that the White Sox existed. The top four teams in the division were incredibly well-balanced and competitive, setting the stage for another exciting race to the top in 2025. Picking who's going to win the AL Central is a crapshoot. It's wide open.
Any conversation about the 2024 Chicago White Sox should come with some kind of warning label. Oh boy. They were a doozy. The White Sox last year were one of the worst teams in baseball history, losing 121 games. No team in the 21st or even the 20th century has lost as many games as the 2024 White Sox. Only the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who went 20-134, lost more contests. Of course, the Spiders are long gone, but the White Sox are very much still here, for better or worse. So, what is the outlook for one of the worst teams in MLB? It will be quite the accomplishment if the White Sox manage to be as horrendous as they were last season. Or will it? A cursory glance at the roster suggests the impossible: The White Sox might've gotten worse over the course of this past offseason. The team's ace, Garrett Crochet, was shipped off to Boston. Yoán Moncada signed with the Los Angeles Angels. Many other notable pieces departed as well, including much of the nucleus of the 2022 team that made the playoffs. Everything except Luis Robert Jr. is gone, and he is almost guaranteed to be traded at some point during the season. New manager Will Venable, whom the White Sox lured away from the Texas Rangers, has his hands full this season and perhaps beyond because Chicago is going to lose a lot of games. It'll be his job to make sure that they don't lose a lot of games, if you know what I mean.
The Minnesota Twins, who won the division in 2023 and finally secured a postseason win, were in the thick of the playoff race in August. While everything hadn't gone to plan, the hopes of returning to October were still alive. But after losing 18 of their final 25 games — a historic collapse — the Twins were catapulted out of the playoff picture. Everyone involved with the organization was disappointed. You'd think the discouraging season would prompt the front office to have a busy offseason. Yet, no such thing occurred. The Twins sat on their hands, not making any notable moves, instead opting to trust in a lineup that consists of Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton. On paper, that trio of hitters can win a team a lot of games, so long as they're all on the field at the same time, which has not been a certainty for any of them. Buxton's career has been filled with all types of injuries. Lewis has experienced much of the same. It's really been a shame. Even without the guarantee that the lineup will be completely healthy for a majority of the time, the Twins should be able to count on getting a lot of starts from Pablo López and Joe Ryan, their top two arms in the rotation. That one-two punch, when clicking, is capable of winning games on its own. Also, keep an eye on Edouard Julien. His 2024 was disappointing, to say the least, but his breakout rookie campaign in 2023 showed his potential. A bounce-back year from Julien could be the spark that the Twins desperately need.
No team stole America's hearts last season quite like the Detroit Tigers. The Motor City Kitties became one of the best teams in baseball after the All-Star break, earning a spot in the postseason for the first time in a decade. There, they swept the mighty Houston Astros in the Wild Card round before losing in five games to the Cleveland Guardians after Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal uncharacteristically lost them a game by giving up a grand slam to Lane Thomas. Despite that tough ending, there's no doubt that last season was a pleasant surprise that gives hope toward a bright future. Skubal is obviously the biggest piece of the puzzle. He'll head a starting rotation that carries a lot of question marks. New signings Alex Cobb and Jack Flaherty (who they actually traded away at the 2024 deadline to the eventual champion Dodgers) have potential but also pose risks — whether from injury or just age. Jackson Jobe, the Tigers' first-round pick in 2021 who made his big league debut last season, could be the saving grace. He possesses sizzling stuff, and if everything breaks right, he could be in line for a breakout year. Other key contributors include Kerry Carpenter, who's become one of the best hitters in baseball — at least against right-handed pitchers — and Riley Greene, who showed significant improvement last season and could be poised for another strong season. Overall, the Tigers should once again be competitive in what's a pretty wide-open American League.
Before diving into the Kansas City Royals, I have to get a little personal. Kansas City is a place I hold near and dear to my heart. My family and I frequently visited to see my grandmother before she passed, and I've always cherished those memories. While the Royals weren't directly part of that experience, they've certainly been a big part of it. My uncle is a fan of the team through thick and thin (and there's been a lot of thin over the years). I remember how elated my family was when the Royals finally won the World Series again in 2015 — it was the first time I'd ever seen a team with any remote connection to me win a championship. (I barely remember the Dallas Mavericks' 2011 Finals victory.) When Wade Davis struck out Wilmer Flores to clinch the title, he threw his glove in the air in celebration. I didn't have a glove to chuck in the air, but I remember feeling a similar way. Obviously, I finally got the taste of a DFW sports championship a little less than two years ago, which I wrote about below:
After that strikeout, the Royals faded into irrelevance for a while. That's a kind way of saying that they sucked. It was only once DFW native Bobby Witt Jr. arrived in Kansas City that the Royals began their rise back into the public picture. His first couple of seasons in KC were productive from an individual perspective, but the team continued to stink. Then something clicked. Witt finished second in the American League MVP race, and the Royals returned to the postseason. It was quite a surprising turnaround considering that the team lost 106 games the year previous. It was also shocking because, besides Witt and franchise legend Salvador Perez, the team couldn't hit to save their lives — especially down the stretch. But their pitching, anchored by young star Cole Ragans and veterans Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, was enough to push them over the line. Now, the Royals return those key pieces while also adding Jonathan India and Carlos Estévez to the mix. Don't forget about Jac Caglianone either. The first-round pick in this past draft had an incredible spring training and could be arriving in Kansas City sooner than expected. If the lineup improves — which I think it will — and the pitching continues to do its thing, the Royals could make a lot of noise. Maybe it's just my bias showing, but I don't really care. It's in my best interest to see the Royals do well, so I will try to speak it into existence. The Royals could be about to embark on a special season. Book it.
When Stephen Vogt was hired to be the manager of the Cleveland Guardians prior to last season, it raised some eyebrows. Vogt had no previous managerial experience, having only worked as a bullpen coach for the Seattle Mariners for a year. Despite the doubts, Vogt's inaugural campaign at the helm was a complete success as he led the team to the ALCS, where they lost to the Yankees. The bullpen was historically good, and José Ramírez continued to be one of the most underrated players in the game. If the Guardians decided to run it back in 2025, no one would've batted an eye. Instead, the front office decided to pivot. They traded Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez to shed payroll and added several new arms, including Paul Sewald, who gave up a couple of big home runs in the 2023 World Series against the Rangers (I'm sorry, I couldn't help myself). Former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is expected to return from Tommy John surgery sometime this season, which could be a huge boost. While the bullpen was dominant last year, there’s always the possibility it could regress, and that would put added pressure on a thin rotation that right now really only boasts Tanner Bibee. Cleveland’s offense outside of Ramirez also needs to step up. If it doesn't, a championship is not in the cards for the Guardians.
My Projected Standings:
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox
Teams I have making the postseason are in italics.