Previewing and projecting the National League
The Dodgers are the favorites, the Braves and Phillies are loaded, and the Diamondbacks could be a sneaky pennant contender.
Baseball makes its long-awaited and triumphant return this week, and I couldn’t be more thrilled. After five long months without full-time baseball, the time has finally come for the game we love to take center stage again.
With the season getting underway this Thursday, it’s going to be a full-on baseball extravaganza here on SethStack for the rest of the week. Today, we’re kicking things off with a comprehensive preview of the National League.
The rule for this preview is simple: every team gets its moment to shine. Yes, even the Rockies will get a little bit of run.
It’s going to be an exciting week here on the site, so be sure to stay tuned. But, without further ado, let’s start this baseball spectacular with a deep dive into the National League.
National League East
2024 Standings:
Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
Atlanta Braves (89-73)
New York Mets (89-73)
Washington Nationals (71-91)
Miami Marlins (62-100)
FanGraphs Projected Standings for 2025 (with projected records):
Atlanta Braves (94-68)
Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
New York Mets (86-76)
Washington Nationals (72-90)
Miami Marlins (70-92)
The NL East was one of the best divisions in baseball in 2024, with three of its five clubs — the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, and New York Mets — making the postseason. Its outlook for 2025 appears to be promising as well.
Let's start at the bottom, though. The Marlins are poised to be among the worst teams in baseball this year. After making the playoffs in 2023, the team made the bizarre decision to fire general manager Kim Ng, the first woman to ever helm an MLB front office. In her place, they hired former Tampa Bay Rays general manager Peter Bendix, who decided to tear everything up from the studs and completely start over. And that's where the Marlins are right now: they're completely restructuring the organization from the ground up. Unfortunately, that includes the play on the field, which was terrible in 2024 and looks to be much of the same in 2025. Simply put, the Marlins aren't interested in competing right now – they're prioritizing the long-term future, for better or worse
For the Washington Nationals, 2025 is all about the youngsters. Since their 2019 World Series triumph, the Nationals have been abysmal. Their .407 winning percentage since that title is the second-worst of any champion in the five seasons following a title. There were many factors behind the steep drop-off, but those appear to be behind them. Instead, the Nationals are looking toward developing the young talent they possess and building toward the future, which hopefully won't be too far away. Washington employs several talented youngsters, with Dylan Crews, James Wood, CJ Abrams, and MacKenzie Gore being chief among them. The primary objective for the Nationals is to develop foundational players they can construct their next championship-contending roster around. Winning baseball games this season would just be icing on the cake.
The New York Mets, meanwhile, are a fascinating case study in big-spending baseball. Since billionaire Steve Cohen bought the team for $2.4 billion in 2020, the Mets have outspent every team in the league not named the Dodgers. However, their sudden burst in spending hasn’t translated into sustained success — aside from a brief playoff appearance in 2022 and a trip to the NLCS last October. So, are the Mets ready to contend in 2025? It’s possible. Signing Juan Soto to the richest contract in North American sports history is a major step in the right direction. But can one elite bat push them over the top in a stacked NL East? I remain skeptical, at least for this season. Pairing Soto alongside Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso is an absolute game-changer, but the Mets' pitching staff remains a glaring weakness. Despite spending big on offense by signing Soto and bringing back Alonso, the Mets failed to adequately address their rotation, which features injury-prone arms like Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. A starting staff that could be thrown into a blender for weeks or maybe even months is not a recipe for a World Series run, much less a postseason berth. Still, with Soto now in the fold, the Mets are appointment viewing.
The Atlanta Braves, when healthy, boast one of the best and most complete rosters in all of baseball. Even when not at full strength, the depth of the squad is remarkable. This was exhibited last season when the Braves endured one of the worst injury bugs I've ever witnessed. Despite losing most of its top-end production for long stretches of the campaign, Atlanta still managed to claw its way into October. While it didn't bear any fruit, it was still mighty impressive that they even managed to make it that far given the trials and tribulations they faced during the regular season. If the many stars Atlanta employs — Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy (who's already injured, go figure), and Ozzie Albies — can remain in the lineup, the Braves will certainly be contenders for a championship in 2025.
In the city of brotherly love, expectations are through the roof. What else could one expect from Philly fans? Since losing the World Series in 2022 to the Houston Astros, the Philadelphia Phillies have slowly regressed. In 2023, they fell victim to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS. 2024 saw them fall to the Mets in the NLDS. Does that downward trajectory — at least in postseason performance — continue in 2025, or will we see a Phillies team with a chip on its shoulder bully its way to a World Series? If they weren't in the NL East, I'd easily pencil them into the playoffs. But since they have to battle it out with the Braves and the Mets for six months, it's more of an uphill battle. That said, I believe the Phillies will be one of the best teams in the National League this year. With a starting lineup that features Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, and Kyle Schwarber, it's hard to go wrong. And with a rotation with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, they're a legitimate threat to bag a ring.
My Projected Standings1:
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
National League Central
2024 Standings:
Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
Chicago Cubs (83-79)
St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
Cincinnati Reds (77-85)
Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)
FanGraphs Projected Standings for 2025:
Chicago Cubs (83-79)
Milwaukee Brewers (81-81)
St. Louis Cardinals (79-83)
Pittsburgh Pirates (78-84)
Cincinnati Reds (78-84)
Oh, the NL Central. Only the Brewers managed to make the postseason last year, even after manager Craig Counsell bolted south to the rival Cubs. In recent years, the NL Central has been one of the more mundane and mediocre divisions in all of baseball. Will that change in 2025?
People often say the sport is better when teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers are good. While that may be true, I’d argue the Cincinnati Reds belong in that mix as well. The Reds are the oldest franchise in Major League Baseball. From their inception in 1881, to the Big Red Machine, to Johnny Cueto, baseball thrives when the Reds are relevant. Unfortunately, for Cincinnati fans and the broader baseball community, the Reds have been anything but relevant over the past decade. Aside from a solid 2020 season — when the team made the postseason for the first time since 2013 — the Reds have struggled to stay competitive, with only fleeting moments of success. However, 2023 showed promise, as young stars like Elly De La Cruz made their first impressions on the league. That progress slowed last season, though, as the team once again failed to make the postseason. Enter Terry Francona. The Reds convinced the legendary manager to come out of retirement to lead the team. Will his presence make a difference? It has to. Add in a capable pitching staff featuring Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo (go Frogs), and I believe the Reds could be in contention for a Wild Card spot by season’s end.
The way the Pittsburgh Pirates operate is maddening. Paul Skenes fell right into their lap, and they’ve done almost nothing to capitalize on it. Skenes is a once-in-a-lifetime pitching phenomenon, and his presence alone propelled the Pirates into relevance last season. Yet instead of seizing the opportunity, Pittsburgh’s ownership continues to cling tightly to the purse strings. It’s honestly a shame. There are some promising young pieces alongside Skenes that Pirates fans can be excited about. Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington dominated the upper minors last season and could join the big league rotation at some point this year. Oneil Cruz is officially back and healthy (and apparently playing center field now), and he should be an absolute powerhouse at the top of the lineup. But that’s about it. The pitching should be solid, but the lineup is likely to fall short. As a result, the Pirates will once again miss the playoffs. No raising the Jolly Roger this season, I’m afraid.
The St. Louis Cardinals are the epitome of "mid." John Mozeliak, the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, is entering his final season with the organization. So far, he’s opted to avoid a full rebuild, instead keeping the team in a state of perpetual mediocrity. Will 2025 mark a shift, or will the Cardinals continue marching toward the middle of the pack? It depends on where they stand around the trade deadline. If they’re far out of the playoff race, I expect them to sell. The team already let Paul Goldschmidt walk after last season, and Nolan Arenado could be next. In fact, the Cardinals attempted to trade him this offseason, but a deal with the Houston Astros fell through after Arenado refused to waive his no-trade clause. St. Louis was once the gold standard of baseball franchises in the 21st century, but it seems the shine has officially worn off.
When the Chicago Cubs won their first World Series in 108 years in 2016, I was elated. Since that historic season, the Cubs have made the playoffs just three times and won the division twice — one of those wins coming during the shortened 2020 season. They’ve never been bad, but they’ve never been quite good enough either. The goal for 2025 is to change that. The Cubs raided the Houston Astros during the offseason, acquiring Kyle Tucker and signing reliever Ryan Pressly. Chicago is hoping that top prospect Matt Shaw, who made his debut during the Tokyo Series last week, will become a key part of the offense alongside Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. The pitching staff has some intriguing pieces, with Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele leading the way. It may not be the strongest rotation in the league, but it’s certainly serviceable. Overall, the Cubs look solid — but they looked solid last year and still missed the postseason.
Now, we come to the Milwaukee Brewers conundrum. Every year, the Brewers seem to do things that should make them weaker. This offseason, Milwaukee shipped top reliever Devin Williams to the New York Yankees. The year before, Corbin Burnes was the casualty, heading to Baltimore. And yet, somehow, someway, the Brewers still manage to be at the top of the NL Central. It’s wizardry. But 2025 will be a more difficult path for the Brew Crew. The competition in the division is stiffer than last year, and on paper, the Brewers aren’t as strong as they were just a season ago. Sure, young talents like Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz could provide the spark that pushes Milwaukee over the top, but I’m not entirely convinced. The Brewers will still be formidable, but perhaps not at the level they’ve been in recent seasons.
My Projected Standings:
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
National League West
2024 Standings:
Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
San Diego Padres (93-69)
Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)
San Francisco Giants (80-82)
Colorado Rockies (61-101)
FanGraphs Projected Standings for 2025:
Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
Arizona Diamondbacks (86-76)
San Diego Padres (81-81)
San Francisco Giants (81-81)
Colorado Rockies (63-99)
There’s some uncertainty about who’s going to win the other two divisions in the National League, but no such question exists in the NL West. This division is the Dodgers’ to lose.
The Colorado Rockies are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum from the Dodgers. While Los Angeles spends freely (and then some), alongside having a stellar player development department, the Rockies, well, don’t. It's honestly hard to pinpoint what the Rockies’ strategy is. According to reports I’ve read online from reputable sources, when you ask other front offices about what Colorado is doing, they just smile and chuckle. (As I was typing this, the Rockies, for some reason, traded Nolan Jones — a player with tremendous upside but a fairly low floor — to the Cleveland Guardians.) Not exactly a good sign, if you ask me! So, is there any silver lining for Colorado this season? Not really. It’s still all about the future in Denver, so keep an eye on top prospect Chase Dollander, who should make his debut in 2025 if things go according to plan. Outfielder/shortstop and certified hitter Charlie Condon, whom the team drafted with its first-round pick in last year's draft, along with Cole Carrigg, the other top outfield prospect, should arrive in 2026. But for this year's team? There’s not much hope.
A new headman is in town for the San Francisco Giants. Buster Posey, the former star catcher for the Giants and a surefire future Hall of Famer, is now the president of baseball operations in the Bay. He’s bringing a mix of old-school philosophies along with new-school tactics in an effort to bring the Giants back to the heights they reached in 2010, 2012, and 2014. In his first offseason at the helm, Posey made a couple of splashes. He signed Willy Adames to a 7-year, $182 million deal — the largest contract in franchise history. The team also brought in Justin Verlander, now 42, who still believes he’s got something left in the tank. Those additions could make the Giants better this year, but still not quite enough to make substantial noise. It’ll be at least another year before San Francisco finds itself back in the postseason.
My biggest hot take so far: I believe the Arizona Diamondbacks could challenge the Dodgers for the National League crown. I know, I know! It sounds ludicrous. But I really like the look of the D-backs, especially their pitching. Arizona made the surprise signing of the offseason by luring Corbin Burnes for a slick $210 million. Adding him alongside Zac Gallen means the top-end of the Diamondbacks' rotation is one of the best in baseball. If their pitching is as good as their offense — according to some metrics, the Diamondbacks had one of the best offenses in MLB last year — then I expect the Snakes to make a trip to the postseason at season's end. Corbin Carroll is the lynchpin here. He had a dreadful first half of 2024 but completely turned it around in the second half. Maintaining that form in 2025 is a must for Arizona. Anything less could put my prediction for their season into a tailspin.
It was an unfortunate end to last season for the San Diego Padres. They were just one win away from a trip to the NLCS before the offense went completely silent, and it was instead the hated Los Angeles Dodgers who advanced. The offseason that followed was disappointing for several reasons. Uncertainty with ownership led to a lack of spending; the Padres didn’t sign a free agent to a big-league contract until February. On paper, last year's core should still be enough to push the Padres into October, but there are some concerns. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, who are making around $57 million combined this season, have not been their old selves recently, much to the Padres' frustration. Given the massive investment the team has made in them, more production should be expected from those two stars. Younger pieces like Fernando Tatis Jr. (is he really a "young player" at this point?) and Jackson Merrill might be enough to offset the lack of output from Machado and Bogaerts, but it might not be. In the end, San Diego desperately needs all four of those pieces firing on all cylinders to achieve its goals in 2025.
Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers. What is there to say? In my piece about the Tokyo Series last week, I made one pretty obvious observation: the Dodgers are going to win a lot of baseball games this year. Here’s a little more from that:
The Dodgers’ financial firepower is rivaled only by the New York Yankees and New York Mets. In the past two offseasons, Los Angeles has spent more money than anybody other than the top one percent will ever see in their entire lives. While 29 other baseball fanbases seethe over the Dodgers’ deep pockets, one thing is undeniable: it’s a strategy that’s working. After all, it brought the Dodgers their first non-COVID season World Series title since 1981.
The star power on this roster is nothing short of mind-blowing. Shohei Ohtani. Freddie Freeman. Mookie Betts. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Roki Sasaki. The list goes on and on. The Dodgers are unequivocally the favorites for the World Series — no ifs, ands, or buts.
The only way this season derails is if a catastrophic wave of injuries hits. With several key players on the older side, an injury epidemic isn’t out of the question. Even then, the depth of this team is so immense that they’d likely still manage to weather the storm. Just look at the Tokyo Series — despite Freeman and Betts being sidelined, the Dodgers cruised to two dominant victories.
I concluded my article on the Tokyo Series with this:
There are so many questions surrounding the 2025 MLB season, but there's only one certainty: the Dodgers will run this league. Does that mean they'll win the World Series? No, it doesn't. But they are going to win a ton of games, and people are going to hate them for it.
That certainly still applies a week later. I'm sure it will for the rest of the year, and perhaps beyond.
My Projected Standings:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Teams I have making the postseason are in italics.