Previewing the Red River Rivalry
It's that time of year when the weather should be getting cooler, but it's still 95 degrees for some reason. It can only mean one thing: Red River.
I overheard a conversation several years ago at school in which people said they thought the Red River Rivalry should be moved to AT&T Stadium. That is ridiculous and borderline blasphemy.
Nothing is more beautiful than Oklahoma and Texas playing underneath the sunlight at the Cotton Bowl. Half the stadium is crimson, the other burnt orange. And they hate each other.
I've never been lucky enough to attend this hallowed rivalry game in person, but I've watched each iteration since 2015. The utter disregard for the other side of the stadium oozes through every pore of the television (if a television could have pores). Every October, in that 94-year-old venue, dreams are created and crushed as fans, players, and coaches experience the mayhem and chaos that always seems to ensue.
This year's contest has the potential to deliver all the same goods we're used to seeing, but it also has the chance to be a bloodbath.
Texas is the number one team in the country according to the Associated Press, and more importantly, the D Poll. The Longhorns haven't blinked once this season, even after star quarterback and Heisman-hopeful Quinn Ewers went down with an abdominal issue in Week 3. In his stead, Arch Manning made his much-anticipated starting debut against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State and delivered good performances. According to Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, Manning’s time as the starter is done for now, with Ewers returning to the lineup for Red River.
I want to flash you back to 2022 when Ewers first became the starter for the Longhorns. He did the job in his first game against UL-Monroe, throwing for 225 yards alongside two touchdowns and an interception. The next week, against number one Alabama, Ewers made his mark. He was hitting all the throws and looked mighty impressive, until, with 31 seconds left in the first quarter, he landed awkwardly on his shoulder after a big hit and had to leave the game. He missed the next three weeks.
The next contest Ewers played was Red River. Oklahoma was reeling entering the game, having just lost starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel to a head injury in its 55-24 loss to TCU the previous week. It wasn't just that it'd have to play a backup quarterback, the defense was also a sieve.
Ewers carved up the Oklahoma defense that afternoon, throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns in a 49-0 win. Texas got the season back on track, while Oklahoma spiraled to a 6-7 record.
The circumstances are somewhat similar in the 2024 edition. Ewers is returning from an injury that kept him out for several weeks, and Oklahoma will be playing a different quarterback than what it started the year with.
True freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. entered midway through the Sooners' crushing defeat to Tennessee three weeks ago. While he couldn't mount the comeback, he orchestrated the offense way better than former starter Jackson Arnold had. The next week against Auburn, Hawkins went on the road and got a win. (Admittedly, that win was somewhat aided by Auburn's incompetence and less so by Oklahoma doing anything particularly well.)
Hawkins is still in a tough place, however. The majority of the wide receiver room for the Sooners is out with injuries, and he's also playing behind an offensive line that wouldn't be able to block an American Girl doll. Combine all that with the stellar defense that Texas has played so far this year, and you might have a recipe for disaster.
If Oklahoma has anything to hang its hat on, it's the defense. The Sooners are only allowing 16 points per game, which ranks twelfth in the nation. They're also only allowing 4.5 yards per play, good enough to rank eighteenth in the FBS. Oklahoma's best bet is to muck up this game defensively and hope that the offense can manufacture some points. Turnovers and short fields are how Oklahoma wins the game. Simply put, Oklahoma needs to rely on chaos. It does that, and it might see itself raising The Golden Hat when everything is said and done. However, if the Longhorns eclipse 28 points, I have a hard time seeing how the folks in crimson and white keep up.
This game rarely fails to deliver. In the last 11 meetings between the two teams, nine have been decided by just one score. I hope that is the case for this year's matchup and that the game is similar to what was put on display in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023.
All that being said, let's pick the game. At the time of this writing, Texas is a 14.5-point favorite. That's a lofty number, especially given that the AP has Oklahoma ranked in the top 20 (the D Poll is not so bullish on the Sooners; they're not even in the top 30 of my rankings at the moment). I tend to agree with the betting line at this point. The talent (and coaching) that Texas has far outweighs anything that Oklahoma can put out there right now. My prediction is Texas 34, Oklahoma 17.
Red River was a massive part of why I love college football so much. Half of my family is from Oklahoma, so this game has always held a lot of significance in my household. I hope to attend one day. While I don't have any rooting interest now (don't tell my mother), I do root for good football games, and I hope we get one on Saturday afternoon.