Over the past week, I’ve been previewing and predicting the college football season, one school at a time. It’s been a ton of fun to walk through Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and so many other Big Ten teams over the last seven or so days.
There are just too many dang schools in these conferences nowadays. The fact that there are a whopping eighteen (!) members in the Big Ten makes zero sense, and it makes me angry, honestly. As such, with the time allotted to me this month, it would have been impossible to cover every Power 4 school in the nation prior to the beginning of the season, and that’s left me feeling a bit empty. Just because Rutgers isn’t going to make the College Football Playoff this year doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t get its flowers in the preseason.
But today, everybody is going to get their moment in the sun. That’s right—Purdue, you’re up! And while it may not be as in-depth as some of the preview podcasts I’ve done (and am continuing to do), it’s still something, and I hope that that’s enough.
This exercise is quite simple: for every team in the Big Ten, I’ll predict whether or not that particular school will go over or under its projected win total. That win total, for the uninitiated, is put out by sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, MGM, etc. I am not a gambler, nor do I suggest anyone partake in the practice, but the number those entities generate is helpful in setting a baseline for how good or bad a school will do in a particular campaign.
I need everybody to prepare themselves for how long this is. Trust me, I did not embark on writing this thinking that it was going to be almost 5,000 words, but here we are. So, grab some popcorn, grab a soda (or whatever your drink of choice is), and lock in. Let’s get into it.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless explicitly mentioned otherwise. Win total lines are listed in parentheses next to the team names.
Illinois (8.5)
I’ve seen a lot of talk about Illinois being this year’s Indiana. That’s a fine comparison, but Indiana came out of nowhere and surprised everybody last year. Illinois isn’t sneaking up on anybody this season, especially after its 10-win season in 2024. Add to that the fact that the inaugural preseason polls—the Coaches and the AP—both had Illinois in the top 15, and it becomes astonishingly clear that the Fighting Illini are a respected bunch.
Bret Bielema, alongside veteran quarterback Luke Altmeyer, should be poised to go on a big run in 2025, with a potential trip to the College Football Playoff in their future. It might be a lot to ask of an Illinois program that’s historically been quite unsuccessful, but this new era of college football has been filled with surprising turns of events, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Fighting Illini are playing in some big-time postseason games when everything is said and done.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Illinois’ 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Indiana (8.5)
Never before in history has the Indiana football program had a more successful season than it did a year ago. Eleven wins and a trip to the CFP would have been a pipe dream for any Indiana fan three seasons ago, and it was made a reality in Curt Cignetti’s first season in Bloomington.
Now comes the difficult task of replicating that success. With a more difficult schedule that includes trips to Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, plus some uncertainty surrounding the roster, I’m not sure if it’s possible. Don’t get me wrong; I definitely believe that the Hoosiers will play quality football in 2025. But a trip to the playoff? Probably not.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on Indiana’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Iowa (7.5)
Kirk Ferentz has been the head coach in Iowa City for 27 seasons, which, to show my age a little bit, is longer than I’ve been alive by half a decade. That longevity has been fed by consistent winning on the football field, and I fully expect that to continue in 2025.
For the first time in forever, the Hawkeyes have a quarterback. Well, they always technically had one—we don’t talk about the era of Spencer Petras, Alex Padilla, Cade McNamara, and Deacon Hill—but now it appears they have one that’s actually competent. Enter Mark Gronowski, a four-year starter at South Dakota State, where he led that program to two FCS national championships in 2022 and 2023.
Obviously, Iowa fans are excited about this development, and so am I. As such, I’m incredibly bullish on the Hawkeyes’ chances in 2025. The schedule is no slouch, as Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, USC, and Nebraska await. But with most of those games at Kinnick Stadium, a place that can get really rowdy on a Saturday afternoon, I’m confident.
And hey, even when Iowa wasn’t scoring points, it was still finding ways to win football games. That’s just the Kirk Ferentz way, baby.
My prediction: OVER
Maryland (4.5)
We could be looking at a scenario where Maryland head coach Mike Locksley is unemployed midway through this season.
The Terrapins won just one Big Ten game a year ago—against USC, of all teams—and could be facing a similar fate this season. After the schedule starts out with three extremely winnable non-conference contests against Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, and Towson, the Big Ten slate arrives and provides zero leeway.
Sure, Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon aren’t on the schedule, but the teams that are have all surpassed Maryland in recent seasons. I’d give the Terrapins, at best, a 50% chance to win some of those games, no higher.
I know that people surrounding the program believe that improvement is on the way, but I just don’t see it. Maryland will not win a Big Ten game in 2025, thus meaning that big change will be arriving in College Park sooner rather than later.
My prediction: UNDER
Michigan State (5.5)
One would hope that Jonathan Smith’s second season in East Lansing would yield continued progress after last year’s 5-7 campaign. Smith, in my opinion, is one of the better head coaches in college football at the moment (or at least he’s underrated), but the project at Michigan State is one that’s going to take years to reach its fullest potential. Unfortunately for Smith and all the folks in East Lansing, I don’t think that 2025 will produce the success that they think they’re capable of.
Unlike Maryland’s non-conference slate, which provides the Terrapins with some necessary cannon-fodder victories, Michigan State opens the season with Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State. The games against Western Michigan and Youngstown State should be wins, but the Boston College contest is more uncertain.
In the end, however, the result of that game doesn’t matter, at least when it comes to the win total. I only have four games on the schedule that I believe Michigan State definitely wins—Western Michigan, Youngstown State, UCLA, and Maryland—and even then, one or two of them have question marks around them.
Simply put, this season will be a step back. Do I want that to happen? No, definitely not. But it might just happen despite my remorse.
My prediction: UNDER
Michigan (9.5)
Can Michigan win 10 games? For sure. Will it? Nope.
The oddsmakers have a faith in the Wolverines that I simply don’t possess. If you listened to the Michigan preview episode of Seth’s College Football Corner, then you’re aware that I’m quite positive about the folks from Ann Arbor in 2025, but that positivity ends at the prospect of them accomplishing the task of going over the 9.5 win total.
There are a lot of difficult games on the schedule, with the Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, and Ohio State contests shining like terrible, scary stars in the night sky. There’s a world where Michigan loses all four of those, and while I don’t think that’s a likely outcome, it’s enough of a possibility that I’m going to steer away from the over here.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on Michigan’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Minnesota (5.5)
Under P.J. Fleck, the Golden Gophers, more often than not, are competitive. Since 2017, the year Fleck arrived in the Twin Cities, Minnesota has won eight or more games four times, while making six bowl appearances—winning each time.
Doing what Fleck has done throughout his tenure there is more than enough to keep him employed for a very long time. I mean, this is Minnesota football we’re talking about; the expectations, while somewhat high at times, are manageable. All you have to do is give the fans a competitive product.
That trend of competency should continue in 2025, despite a fairly difficult schedule. Minnesota plays Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, and Oregon, as well as the yearly rivalry contest against hated Wisconsin. All of those games are losable, but I’d reckon that half of them are definitely winnable. Do that and take care of business against the lesser opponents on the schedule, and the Golden Gophers have secured themselves a ticket to success.
My prediction: OVER
Nebraska (7.5)
The Cornhuskers are a wild card. If the Matt Rhule “Third Year Bump” takes effect, then this season in Lincoln could be quite special. If not, then Nebraska could be headed toward another season of disappointment, something it’s become far too accustomed to over the years.
Dylan Raiola can be a star. The flashes were there throughout his freshman season; now it’s just time for him to unlock it full-time. And with new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, a coach who loves to air out the ball and go fast, he should have plenty of moments to shine.
The glory days of Nebraska might not ever return, but winning consistently should be back sooner rather than later if Rhule and Raiola’s trajectory proves true. It’s about time that the sold-out crowds at Memorial Stadium finally see a football team that provides them with the happiness they’ve been seeking since the 1990s.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Nebraska’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Northwestern (3.5)
It is with great sadness that I announce to the world that Northwestern is going to suck. I know, I know. This is depressing news that we all must contemplate on our own time. Trust me, it took me a while to come to terms with this reality.
Northwestern, under the leadership of then-first-year head coach David Braun, shocked the world during the 2023 season by going 8-5 and winning the Las Vegas Bowl over Utah. Was Northwestern, a school historically for nerds (I’m sorry, it’s just true), going to be making a rise in football?
In terms of program buy-in, the answer could potentially be yes. The school demolished the old version of Ryan Field and is building a brand-new, state-of-the-art $862 million masterpiece. It’s set to open in 2026, and it should be a beauty.
On the actual football field, though, Northwestern leaves much to be desired. It’s just extremely tough to recruit quality Big Ten-level talent to Evanston, and Braun and company saw that play out to its fullest extent via a 4-8 season last year. And since the schedule in 2025 is much harder, I’m not that bullish on the Wildcats.
Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois are on the docket for Northwestern. On top of that, Tulane, one of the best squads in the Group of 5, comes to town in Week 1. For a program that’s desperate for easy victories, there sure aren’t many of them on the schedule.
So, even with the small win total, it’s hard to see Northwestern winning any more than three games in 2025. I know, that’s terrible news. Alas, we all must suffer hardships, and this is sadly one of those instances.
Was all of this a little too dramatic?
My prediction: UNDER
Ohio State (10.5)
Ask any fan of Ohio State what their expectations are for this season, and the first two words out of their mouth are bound to be “national championship.” Anything less for the reigning champs will be considered a failure.
With a new quarterback helming the offense—it’s most likely going to be Julian Sayin, but Lincoln Kienholz is hot on his tail—Ohio State might have some growing pains early in the year. Hosting Texas, the number one overall team in the preseason AP Poll, doesn’t help matters, but if the Buckeyes play up to their potential, then that game should be one that they can win.
The rest of the schedule presents two prominent challenges: Penn State and Michigan. Historically, triumphing over Penn State is an easy feat for Ohio State, and beating Michigan is something that the Buckeyes had become accustomed to prior to the beginning of this current four-game losing streak to the Wolverines.
But this year is going to be different, and Penn State, a program that hasn’t been able to win the “big game,” is finally going to do it against Ohio State. And then Michigan? Yeah, the Wolverines are going to beat the Buckeyes too. Cue the sad music for Ryan Day.
There is the Jeremiah Smith of it all that should definitely be taken into consideration. Smith proved to the world in his freshman season in Columbus that he was ready for the NFL. Due to draft eligibility regulations, he’ll have to play two more years in college before that’s even possible, which is a bummer for him but a great reward for all of us who desire to see the best of the best playing in college.
A 9-3 season, which I predict will be the result of Ohio State’s year, would be cause for celebration for over half of the college football programs in Division I. For Ohio State, though, that might be reason enough to fire a coach, especially if one of those losses is to Michigan, a school that’s had the Buckeyes’ number for almost half a decade.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on Ohio State’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Oregon (10.5)
The maiden voyage in the Big Ten for Oregon was a smashing success, at least until the final game of the season. The Ducks ran the table, going 13-0 prior to the disaster-fest that was the Rose Bowl against Ohio State. Losing 41-21 after getting weeks to prepare was, frankly, embarrassing.
Moving on to 2025, there’s a ton of turnover in Eugene. It feels like over half the team that won the Big Ten last year is gone, with most of them off to the NFL. There are going to be fresh faces everywhere, with Dante Moore, the team’s projected starting quarterback, being chief among them.
Everything hinges on Moore’s success. If he lives up to the hype, then the Ducks might be able to cruise through what’s a relatively light schedule. If they have to turn elsewhere, or if he’s just not as good as we all thought, then there could be trouble on the horizon.
There are really only a couple of trip-up spots: a trip to Penn State on September 27 and a jaunt over to Iowa City to face the Hawkeyes on November 8. There are also the final two games of the year against USC and Washington, which should be tough tests against schools that also used to be members of the Pac-12.
Overall, Oregon is going to be good, perhaps even quality enough to make it to Indianapolis at the end of the day. But with the uncertainty surrounding much of their roster, it’s hard to pin down exactly how good they can be. So, just like in Limbo, I’m going under.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on Oregon’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Penn State (10.5)
Everybody seems to be on the Penn State hype train. Just about every college football pundit I am aware of has touted the praise of the Nittany Lions. I am here to announce that I will be joining them in their laudation.
Drew Allar is back. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are back. Nick Dawkins is back. Dani Dennis-Sutton is back. OK, I think you get it. Just about everybody is back for Penn State.
What does this mean? Well, it means that we predictors and previewers have a fairly viable idea of what this roster is capable of. For one, we know that they can make it to the CFP semifinals—that’s what they did last year! Should they take a step up, then perhaps a national championship is coming up in their future?
If you listened to my preview episode that I did for Penn State, then you know just how superb I believe the Nittany Lions to be. If everything breaks how I see it, then Penn State will win every game on its schedule except for one, that one being a surprising upset to Iowa. That’s right—in my opinion, Penn State is beating Oregon and Ohio State in 2025. If that doesn’t buck the nasty narrative that James Franklin can’t win the “big game,” then I don’t know what will.
I could be wrong, though. We’ve seen countless instances of schools with a ton of returning production fall well short of expectations. The weight of pressure can be too much for some players. Penn State just hopes that that isn’t the case when it comes to its roster.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Penn State’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Purdue (3.5)
It’s OK that Purdue’s a basketball school. However, that still might not shake off the shame that’s about to come via this year’s football season.
Purdue legitimately has a shot to be one of the worst teams in the Power 4 in 2025, with Stanford and Mississippi State right there with them. Just like Maryland and Northwestern, there are no guaranteed victories on the conference schedule—in order to capture a Big Ten win, Purdue’s going to have to shock somebody. Heck, even the non-conference opener against Ball State could be losable.
The coaching with Barry Odom—a guy who’s been there and done that—should be better this season after the firing of Ryan Walters, but the depleted roster he was given is definitely not enough to compete in what’s a loaded conference.
Gone are the days of Aidan O’Connell and Jeff Brohm. In order to survive in college football’s new landscape, Purdue’s going to have to adapt. I’m afraid that whatever measures are taken to do that will probably not be enough.
My prediction: UNDER
Rutgers (5.5)
Rutgers was the first college in America to play football (I ain’t lying, look it up), but its star has dwindled ever since that historic game against Princeton on November 6, 1869. For some reason, football in the northeast of the United States just hasn’t been as important as it has been down south, thus resulting in Rutgers falling into obscurity. And with a very difficult schedule ahead of them in 2025, the Scarlet Knights are going to have to fight and claw their way to a bowl game.
After opening the season with Ohio, Miami (OH), and Norfolk—three games that should be easy, peasy wins—Rutgers is faced with what I’m going to call “the gauntlet.” Other phrases that would suffice would be “trial by fire,” “the crucible,” and, my personal favorite, “test of mettle.” That last one really makes it sound like the tough schedule is an examination of the character of the players on the team itself. I like it.
Anyway, dates with Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, and Penn State, all teams that I believe to be the top of the crop in the Big Ten, await Rutgers. Only two gimmes, against Purdue and Maryland, sit there on the schedule.
Here’s the breakdown of how Rutgers will make a bowl game:
First, beat Ohio, Miami (OH), and Norfolk. That should be fairly easy.
Once that’s done, steal one game against Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, or Illinois. In my opinion, Rutgers’ best bet is to take the game against the Golden Gophers on September 27.
Next, beat up on Purdue and Maryland. That also should be pretty straightforward.
Boom, that’s it! Six wins and a trip to the Pinstripe Bowl or something like that. I’d call that a smashing success.
My prediction: OVER
UCLA (5.5)
Of all these predictions, pinning down what UCLA is going to do this year was one of the most difficult. Seemingly overnight, the Bruins became an irrelevant entity in the larger college football landscape. With the exception of the latter years of Chip Kelly’s tenure, how often are they coming up in the national conversation?
That leaves us with two questions: 1) should we be paying more attention to UCLA? or 2) should we continue to stray away from any sense of optimism surrounding the program?
According to me, the wise college football sage that I am, the latter would be a more accurate assessment of reality. Kelly is gone, and the last three years under him, which all saw relative success, feel far in the rearview. The DeShaun Foster era is here, and with it the questions and uncertainty that come with all first-time head coaches.
Foster’s inaugural season in Los Angeles was anything but a shining example of beginner’s luck. After beating Hawaii in Week 1, five consecutive losses followed against Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Penn State, and Minnesota. Admittedly, that’s an extremely tough stretch. Three of those schools made the College Football Playoff, and all five of them finished above .500. And things did turn around once the schedule softened up, with the team winning three straight against Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa. But with back-to-back losses to former Pac-12 foes Washington and USC, it became clear that there were still some growing pains to be had.
OK, am I burying the lede a bit too much? Yeah, I probably am.
Nico Iamaleava is the new quarterback here after he arrived following a turbulent exit from Tennessee. There’s a whole lot to unpack about that turn of events that I won’t delve into here, but just know that drama might follow this program everywhere it goes. Iamaleava and his family sought to control the narrative in Knoxville, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s also the case in Los Angeles.
On the football side of things, however, Iamaleava should be an improvement. He’s a guy who, if he’s playing at the potential everybody thought he could coming out of high school, could be one of the best in the country. All he has to do is unlock that consistently.
All that said, I’m afraid that I still just don’t have enough information on the Bruins to confidently say that they’re going to be an improved football team in 2025. They went 5-7 a year ago, and I think they’ll repeat the feat.
My prediction: UNDER
USC (7.5)
The heralding of USC’s demise is premature. You think that a team coached by Lincoln Riley is just going to roll over and die?
All jokes aside, the Trojans were a disappointment a year ago, mostly due to an offense that took a major step back. Even the defensive upgrades weren’t enough to buoy an offense, led by Miller Moss, that wasn’t anywhere near as potent as Riley’s units in the past. Oh, and there’s the fact that that unfortunate offensive regression led to a pitiful record in one-score games.
USC lost close games to Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Maryland, Washington, and Notre Dame, with the first five of those being by one score. The Trojans failed to win a true road contest all year—all their wins came at home or at neutral sites. All that culminated in a 7-6 record, the worst of Riley’s head coaching career. Not great.
Now it’s on to 2025, which should bring greener pastures and, hopefully, more wins. I hope so, at least for my sake, because I’m so high on USC that I might as well be on Mount Everest.
In what’s probably the hottest take I’ve made so far, I predict that the Trojans are going to go 9-3, with big wins over Illinois, Michigan, and Notre Dame. They’ll fall short in some other contests against Nebraska, Iowa, and Oregon, but that won’t be enough to dampen what would otherwise be a fantastic step in the right direction.
Is all that a bit too much considering the last two years of decline? Probably. But I’m nothing but optimistic when it comes to a ton of these top-end teams, and that’s not changing when it comes to USC.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on USC’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Washington (7.5)
Someone asked me the other day how long it had been since Washington played in the national championship. Me, being the idiot I am, said 50 years. Either I completely forgot about their appearance in 2023’s natty, or that’s just how long ago 2023 feels.
The same could be said about the state of Washington’s roster, which features almost zero production from that 2023 team that shocked the world. The head coach? Gone. The star quarterback and wide receivers? Also gone. All that seemingly remains is the name and the mascot.
The Huskies are a program that should be competing in the Big Ten year after year. Since last season was a building year with a brand-new head coach and a brand-new roster, I’ll give them a pass. But 2025 should be the season that Washington takes the step toward being a perennial winner in the Big Ten.
Games against Colorado State, UC Davis, and Washington State provide the Huskies with winnable contests right off the bat, but a bout with reigning national champion Ohio State provides a much tougher test. Pair that with other games throughout the season against Michigan, Illinois, and Oregon, and there’s some difficulty awaiting the good folks from Seattle.
Still, the Huskies, with fresh quarterback Demond Williams Jr., should be poised to win at least eight games. All they have to do is swing a pair of that above slate I just mentioned. And hey, if one of those wins is against Oregon, then I bet you that no matter the rest of the results, Washington fans will leave this season happy.
My prediction: OVER
Wisconsin (5.5)
The final frontier of this long marathon win total journey comes in the form of Wisconsin. And honestly, what a dud to end on.
Luke Fickell took this job following the 2022 season, and his first two years in Madison have been incredibly lackluster. This was the man who elevated Cincinnati to a College Football Playoff berth. Now, he’s just trying to make a bowl at Wisconsin. What a fall from grace.
It’s make or break for the Badgers in 2025. Fickell’s tenure as head coach might not be on the line necessarily, but a lot of fans are already disenfranchised with the product and are demanding positive results now. Patience is not a virtue that college football fans often carry, so I’d suggest that Wisconsin promptly start winning. Unfortunately, I don’t know if that’s possible.
Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, and Oregon come back-to-back-to-back-to-back midway through the season, with Washington, Indiana, and Illinois immediately following. I’d go as far as to say that Wisconsin’s schedule is the hardest in the conference, and that comes at a terrible time for Fickell and company.
It’s a shame that his tenure might not go well because the star he had while at Cincinnati was brighter than any I’d seen in a long time. Oh well, maybe next time, if that’s even an option.
My prediction: UNDER
I’m exhausted, and you probably are too after reading that. I’m not saying to take these predictions to the bank (please don’t do that, actually), but I’m fairly confident in all of these. Some more than others, obviously.
The predictions and previews are continuing on the site the rest of the month, with the ACC, Big 12, and then the SEC on deck. Then, the start of the college football season. I wish it was today, but alas, we have to wait a couple more weeks.
Patience is a virtue, though, so let’s bide our time and await our reward.