Projecting the Win Totals for Every Big Ten Team
How many games is each Big Ten team going to win this fall?
Over the past week, I’ve been previewing and predicting the college football season, one school at a time. It’s been a ton of fun to walk through Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and so many other Big Ten teams over the last seven or so days.
There are just too many dang schools in these conferences nowadays. The fact that there are a whopping eighteen (!) members in the Big Ten makes zero sense, and it makes me angry, honestly. As such, with the time allotted to me this month, it would have been impossible to cover every Power 4 school in the nation prior to the beginning of the season, and that’s left me feeling a bit empty. Just because Rutgers isn’t going to make the College Football Playoff this year doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t get its flowers in the preseason.
But today, everybody is going to get their moment in the sun. That’s right—Purdue, you’re up! And while it may not be as in-depth as some of the preview podcasts I’ve done (and am continuing to do), it’s still something, and I hope that that’s enough.
This exercise is quite simple: for every team in the Big Ten, I’ll predict whether or not that particular school will go over or under its projected win total. That win total, for the uninitiated, is put out by sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, MGM, etc. I am not a gambler, nor do I suggest anyone partake in the practice, but the number those entities generate is helpful in setting a baseline for how good or bad a school will do in a particular campaign.
I need everybody to prepare themselves for how long this is. Trust me, I did not embark on writing this thinking that it was going to be almost 5,000 words, but here we are. So, grab some popcorn, grab a soda (or whatever your drink of choice is), and lock in. Let’s get into it.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless explicitly mentioned otherwise. Win total lines are listed in parentheses next to the team names.
Illinois (8.5)
I’ve seen a lot of talk about Illinois being this year’s Indiana. That’s a fine comparison, but Indiana came out of nowhere and surprised everybody last year. Illinois isn’t sneaking up on anybody this season, especially after its 10-win season in 2024. Add to that the fact that the inaugural preseason polls—the Coaches and the AP—both had Illinois in the top 15, and it becomes astonishingly clear that the Fighting Illini are a respected bunch.
Bret Bielema, alongside veteran quarterback Luke Altmeyer, should be poised to go on a big run in 2025, with a potential trip to the College Football Playoff in their future. It might be a lot to ask of an Illinois program that’s historically been quite unsuccessful, but this new era of college football has been filled with surprising turns of events, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Fighting Illini are playing in some big-time postseason games when everything is said and done.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Illinois’ 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Indiana (8.5)
Never before in history has the Indiana football program had a more successful season than it did a year ago. Eleven wins and a trip to the CFP would have been a pipe dream for any Indiana fan three seasons ago, and it was made a reality in Curt Cignetti’s first season in Bloomington.
Now comes the difficult task of replicating that success. With a more difficult schedule that includes trips to Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, plus some uncertainty surrounding the roster, I’m not sure if it’s possible. Don’t get me wrong; I definitely believe that the Hoosiers will play quality football in 2025. But a trip to the playoff? Probably not.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on Indiana’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Iowa (7.5)
Kirk Ferentz has been the head coach in Iowa City for 27 seasons, which, to show my age a little bit, is longer than I’ve been alive by half a decade. That longevity has been fed by consistent winning on the football field, and I fully expect that to continue in 2025.
