Projecting the Win Totals for Every Big 12 Team
How many games is each Big 12 team going to win this fall?
Today might finally be the day where I write one of these that isn’t an absurd number of words. I’ve been told that writing 4,500+ words about ACC and Big Ten win totals is too much, but I’ve also been told (by myself) that whoever says such a thing doesn’t understand the importance of these types of things. I guess we’ll never know who’s right.
Like I said in my ACC win totals post, the one thing that stands the test of time among all these conferences now is their absurd size. Eighteen teams reside in the Big Ten, and sixteen are members of the Big 12. The ACC, which stands for “Atlantic Coast Conference,” includes teams that play in the San Francisco Bay Area (Cal and Stanford) as well as in the heart of Texas (SMU). The SEC includes Missouri, which I’d qualify as not in the southeastern United States. Therein lies the issue of confusion among the majority of casual college sports fans. The fact that conference commissioners don’t realize this is absurd. Their pocketbooks aren’t hurting, so I presume they just don’t care.
Anyway, I’ve already previewed and predicted the seasons for countless Power Four schools at this point, as well as projected the win totals for both the Big Ten and ACC. It’s the Big 12’s turn today—all sixteen of them. Everybody gets their moment in the sun.
For those who are unfamiliar, here’s a little blurb from my previous posts regarding what this whole thing is about:
This exercise is quite simple: for every team in the conference, I’ll predict whether that particular school will go over or under its projected win total. That win total, for the uninitiated, is put out by sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, MGM, etc. I am not a gambler, nor do I suggest anyone partake in the practice, but the number those entities generate is helpful in setting a baseline for how well or poorly a school will do in a particular campaign.
Once again, no promises can be made that this won’t be long. I apologize if it is.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless explicitly mentioned otherwise. Win total lines are listed in parentheses next to the team names.
Arizona (5.5)
Two seasons ago, Arizona went 10–4 and won the Alamo Bowl over Oklahoma. Quarterback Noah Fifita was an up-and-coming star in college football, and head coach Jedd Fisch looked poised to continue to lead the Wildcats’ turnaround for years to come. Well, until someone else offered him more money.
Once Fisch departed for Washington, bringing a slew of Arizona players along with him—except Fifita and star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan—the cracks began to show. New head coach Brent Brennan couldn’t fit all the pieces together, and 2024 proved to be a disaster. Four wins, all against subpar competition except for one lone upset victory at Utah, were the only successful marks that the team had to show for itself once the season concluded, except for McMillan, who shone as one of the best wide receivers in the country and was subsequently picked 8th overall by the Carolina Panthers in this year’s NFL Draft.
Now, without McMillan, where does Arizona go from here? The play from Fifita down the stretch last season was extremely concerning, and my confidence that he can return to his 2023 level of performance is slim. The schedule is not light on tough opponents—Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU, Kansas, Baylor, and Arizona State are all on the docket and projected to be some of the top teams in the league. Where do the wins come from? Against Hawaii and Weber State? Perhaps, but Hawaii just took down Stanford in Week 0. I don’t know if I can definitively say that Arizona is better than Stanford, which is quite harsh if you are aware of just how bad Stanford is.
In the end, I predict that Arizona could be on the lookout for a new head coach by the time November rolls around. Trust me, I don’t like picking teams to fail, but sometimes that’s just the reality of the situation.
My prediction: UNDER
Arizona State (8.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
I don’t know if the vibes have ever been higher at Arizona State. To have the hometown alum head coach come back and lead the program to a conference championship and a memorable appearance in the College Football Playoff is a dream. At times, it felt almost too good to be true.
What makes the whole experience even better is that almost the entirety of last season’s historic team returns. Quarterback Sam Leavitt—a dual-threat machine—returns to lead an offense that features quality pass-catchers such as Jordan Tyson and Chamon Metayer. Even with Cam Skattebo’s absence, there’s still much to like about the Sun Devils’ offense.
Kenny Dillingham and company also expect the defense to continue to make big leaps. The pass rush, headlined by top sacker Clayton Smith, as well as Prince Dorbah, looks to be one of the most deadly in the Big 12. Pair that with an experienced secondary, and Arizona State might just be cooking with gas.
I have the Sun Devils winning the Big 12 once again, and this time they might even win a game in the CFP. The dream lives on in Tempe, and if this pace continues, it’ll be going on for quite some time.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Arizona State’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Baylor (7.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
SethStack is an official fan of Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson. If you have any quarrels or complaints about that man, please take those elsewhere.
All jokes aside, Robertson is one of my favorite QBs, not just in the Big 12, but in the country. It was his rise toward the end of last season that enabled the Bears to go on the run they did. Watching him was a joy; watching his team succeed was a struggle—that’s just the TCU grad coming out in me.
Isn’t it crazy that Baylor head coach Dave Aranda was on the verge of being fired if 2024 didn’t go well, only to now be firmly secure? From being at the top of the list of coaches who were about to be sent packing to the top of the Big 12 coaching rankings is an insane turn of events, but one that was rightly earned with last season’s turnaround.
Other than the quarterback, there’s much to like about the Bears. Running back Bryson Washington is so fun to watch, and receivers Josh Cameron and Kobe Prentice provide some nice pass-catchers for Robertson. Defensively, Aranda’s crew should be well-positioned, given the improvements made toward the end of last year’s campaign.
If Baylor can build on last year’s hot streak, then 2025 could be a special season in Waco. While this TCU fan might not want it to happen, I think it’s only right of me to acknowledge that it’s a definite possibility.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Baylor’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
BYU (6.5)
Once Jake Retzlaff was essentially dismissed from the program following the spring, I was ready to jump ship on the 2025 iteration of BYU. Then, like a knight in shining armor, the Cougars’ hero arrived. Bear Bachmeier, a true freshman transfer from Stanford (huh?), is the starting quarterback for BYU, and he’s wearing the number 47.
If there’s ever been a vibes pick for a team, it’s this one. Bachmeier’s potential on its own was enough for me to jump on the bandwagon. When I was made aware that he’s wearing 47, I hopped on the train and told the conductor to take me to the end of the route.
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