Today might finally be the day where I write one of these that isn’t an absurd number of words. I’ve been told that writing 4,500+ words about ACC and Big Ten win totals is too much, but I’ve also been told (by myself) that whoever says such a thing doesn’t understand the importance of these types of things. I guess we’ll never know who’s right.
Like I said in my ACC win totals post, the one thing that stands the test of time among all these conferences now is their absurd size. Eighteen teams reside in the Big Ten, and sixteen are members of the Big 12. The ACC, which stands for “Atlantic Coast Conference,” includes teams that play in the San Francisco Bay Area (Cal and Stanford) as well as in the heart of Texas (SMU). The SEC includes Missouri, which I’d qualify as not in the southeastern United States. Therein lies the issue of confusion among the majority of casual college sports fans. The fact that conference commissioners don’t realize this is absurd. Their pocketbooks aren’t hurting, so I presume they just don’t care.
Anyway, I’ve already previewed and predicted the seasons for countless Power Four schools at this point, as well as projected the win totals for both the Big Ten and ACC. It’s the Big 12’s turn today—all sixteen of them. Everybody gets their moment in the sun.
For those who are unfamiliar, here’s a little blurb from my previous posts regarding what this whole thing is about:
This exercise is quite simple: for every team in the conference, I’ll predict whether that particular school will go over or under its projected win total. That win total, for the uninitiated, is put out by sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, MGM, etc. I am not a gambler, nor do I suggest anyone partake in the practice, but the number those entities generate is helpful in setting a baseline for how well or poorly a school will do in a particular campaign.
Once again, no promises can be made that this won’t be long. I apologize if it is.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless explicitly mentioned otherwise. Win total lines are listed in parentheses next to the team names.
Arizona (5.5)
Two seasons ago, Arizona went 10–4 and won the Alamo Bowl over Oklahoma. Quarterback Noah Fifita was an up-and-coming star in college football, and head coach Jedd Fisch looked poised to continue to lead the Wildcats’ turnaround for years to come. Well, until someone else offered him more money.
Once Fisch departed for Washington, bringing a slew of Arizona players along with him—except Fifita and star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan—the cracks began to show. New head coach Brent Brennan couldn’t fit all the pieces together, and 2024 proved to be a disaster. Four wins, all against subpar competition except for one lone upset victory at Utah, were the only successful marks that the team had to show for itself once the season concluded, except for McMillan, who shone as one of the best wide receivers in the country and was subsequently picked 8th overall by the Carolina Panthers in this year’s NFL Draft.
Now, without McMillan, where does Arizona go from here? The play from Fifita down the stretch last season was extremely concerning, and my confidence that he can return to his 2023 level of performance is slim. The schedule is not light on tough opponents—Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU, Kansas, Baylor, and Arizona State are all on the docket and projected to be some of the top teams in the league. Where do the wins come from? Against Hawaii and Weber State? Perhaps, but Hawaii just took down Stanford in Week 0. I don’t know if I can definitively say that Arizona is better than Stanford, which is quite harsh if you are aware of just how bad Stanford is.
In the end, I predict that Arizona could be on the lookout for a new head coach by the time November rolls around. Trust me, I don’t like picking teams to fail, but sometimes that’s just the reality of the situation.
My prediction: UNDER
Arizona State (8.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
I don’t know if the vibes have ever been higher at Arizona State. To have the hometown alum head coach come back and lead the program to a conference championship and a memorable appearance in the College Football Playoff is a dream. At times, it felt almost too good to be true.
What makes the whole experience even better is that almost the entirety of last season’s historic team returns. Quarterback Sam Leavitt—a dual-threat machine—returns to lead an offense that features quality pass-catchers such as Jordan Tyson and Chamon Metayer. Even with Cam Skattebo’s absence, there’s still much to like about the Sun Devils’ offense.
Kenny Dillingham and company also expect the defense to continue to make big leaps. The pass rush, headlined by top sacker Clayton Smith, as well as Prince Dorbah, looks to be one of the most deadly in the Big 12. Pair that with an experienced secondary, and Arizona State might just be cooking with gas.
I have the Sun Devils winning the Big 12 once again, and this time they might even win a game in the CFP. The dream lives on in Tempe, and if this pace continues, it’ll be going on for quite some time.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Arizona State’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Baylor (7.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
SethStack is an official fan of Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson. If you have any quarrels or complaints about that man, please take those elsewhere.
All jokes aside, Robertson is one of my favorite QBs, not just in the Big 12, but in the country. It was his rise toward the end of last season that enabled the Bears to go on the run they did. Watching him was a joy; watching his team succeed was a struggle—that’s just the TCU grad coming out in me.
Isn’t it crazy that Baylor head coach Dave Aranda was on the verge of being fired if 2024 didn’t go well, only to now be firmly secure? From being at the top of the list of coaches who were about to be sent packing to the top of the Big 12 coaching rankings is an insane turn of events, but one that was rightly earned with last season’s turnaround.
Other than the quarterback, there’s much to like about the Bears. Running back Bryson Washington is so fun to watch, and receivers Josh Cameron and Kobe Prentice provide some nice pass-catchers for Robertson. Defensively, Aranda’s crew should be well-positioned, given the improvements made toward the end of last year’s campaign.
If Baylor can build on last year’s hot streak, then 2025 could be a special season in Waco. While this TCU fan might not want it to happen, I think it’s only right of me to acknowledge that it’s a definite possibility.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Baylor’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
BYU (6.5)
Once Jake Retzlaff was essentially dismissed from the program following the spring, I was ready to jump ship on the 2025 iteration of BYU. Then, like a knight in shining armor, the Cougars’ hero arrived. Bear Bachmeier, a true freshman transfer from Stanford (huh?), is the starting quarterback for BYU, and he’s wearing the number 47.
If there’s ever been a vibes pick for a team, it’s this one. Bachmeier’s potential on its own was enough for me to jump on the bandwagon. When I was made aware that he’s wearing 47, I hopped on the train and told the conductor to take me to the end of the route.
Seriously, though, BYU should be fairly good this season. It always is, after all, at least during Kalani Sitake’s tenure. Everything feels winnable on the schedule, and with expectations in Provo that probably rival any other program in the Big 12, victories are necessary. Last season felt like a tease of what BYU could be in this conference, and if it decides to replicate that success and more, watch out, Big 12.
Also, don’t tell anybody I told you to do this, but lay down some Bear Bachmeier Heisman stock for 2027. That might be the most ludicrous thing I’ve ever said, but it just feels right in this particular moment.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on BYU’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Cincinnati (6.5)
People forget that Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff in 2021. What a season that was.
Luke Fickell is gone, though, and new head coach Scott Satterfield (is he really new if this is his third year?) is looking to finally break through in southern Ohio. Obviously, there’s potential inside the program—the magical season in 2021 exhibited just that—it just needs to be unlocked.
I’m fairly high on quarterback Brendan Sorsby. Tailback Evan Pryor returns after averaging 7.5 yards per carry last season. The defensive line with Dontay Corleone should also be a strength. What makes me a little pessimistic is the head coach. Satterfield just isn’t somebody who moves the needle for me, and his tumultuous exit at Louisville left a bad taste in my mouth. Maybe that’s my fault for looking three years into the past to determine my thoughts on the present, but that’s just how I feel.
Even with my reservations surrounding Satterfield, I’ll tentatively take the over (barely) based on my confidence in Sorsby. He’s one of the most underrated QBs in the conference, and I hope more people learn his name by the time this season is said and done.
My prediction: OVER
Colorado (5.5)
One major question comes to mind when I think about Colorado’s 2025 season: what does the post-Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders era look like in Boulder?
Deion Sanders is back, and hopefully for the entire season, given his health issues. I was extremely pleased to hear that he was doing well and that he’d beaten bladder cancer. I’m sure that wasn’t something that was particularly easy, and I respect his mettle and toughness.
So much of the past two Colorado teams laid on the shoulders of Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Is it even possible to replace that production, or is a step back inevitable? That question, as well as so many others, continues to bounce through my head regarding the Buffaloes. What does the QB situation look like? Will Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter be the starter, or will highly touted recruit Julian Lewis step in at some point? Can the defense continue to improve? What about the offensive line? What does that position group look like?
The answers to those questions, at least right now, are a big fat “I don’t know.” Part of me wants to trust Deion and his ability to continue to build the program and brand, but part of me realizes that without the star power that Hunter and Shedeur possessed, there’s just no way that the Buffaloes live up to what last year was.
My prediction: UNDER
Houston (5.5)
Willie Fritz’s first season at Houston was predictably a rebuilding year. The roster that departing head coach Dana Holgorsen left was bare to the bone, and there wasn’t much hope that a bounce-back season was going to happen immediately. Still, a couple of upset wins against TCU, Utah, and Kansas State provided a glimpse of what was possible.
Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman is here to be the starting quarterback. That’s right, I bet you didn’t know that that’s where he ended up. The former five-star recruit is attempting to show the world that his flameout in College Station was a blip on the radar. We’ll see how likely that is in due time.
While I might have some doubts regarding the legitimacy of Weigman’s abilities, I don’t doubt Fritz’s. He’s one of the most underrated head coaches in college football. To turn Tulane into a mid-major powerhouse was a feat that nobody thought possible. He did it. It seems very possible to me that he can do the same at Houston, a school that’s won, and won a lot, in the past.
This season might not be one where the Cougars contend for a Big 12 title, but it’ll be a start in that direction. Give me the over.
My prediction: OVER
Iowa State (7.5)
There is obviously a bit of bias here since Iowa State already played a game this season (and won). The Cyclones are already one step closer to hitting their win total, and I unfortunately have to take that into account.
Rocco Becht is in the conversation for best quarterback in the Big 12, and that showed against K-State last Saturday in Dublin. While he might not have the flashiest stats, the intangibles are all there. He’s a great decision-maker and one of the more clutch players in the conference.
Then there’s the Matt Campbell factor. Throughout his time at Toledo and now at Iowa State, he’s continually been one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. It’s hard to express just how bad Iowa State has been as a program throughout its history, but I believe the following statistic proves just how miserable it must’ve been to be a Cyclones fan prior to Campbell’s arrival in Ames: From 1892 to 2015, Iowa State won three bowl games. Since Campbell got the job in 2016, Iowa State has won three bowl games. Impressive, indeed.
Somehow, some way, no larger fish has scooped up Campbell’s coaching prowess along the way, and Iowa State is all the better for it. For as long as he’s there, I have faith that the Cyclones will win games. Even after losing so much production from last year’s squad, there’s just too much good coaching on that sideline to think that going under is even feasible.
My prediction: OVER
Kansas (7.5)
It turns out Kansas also played a game last Saturday, and its win total is also tainted! What in the world? How can this be? Where did I go wrong in my scheduling?
Overreacting to teams after their performance in their first game is a terrible idea, yet we all seem to fall into the trap time and time again. After Kansas drove right down the field on Fresno State, with sixth-year quarterback Jalon Daniels flashing his awesome talent, ability, and experience, I found myself overreacting. I knew it was happening, but I couldn’t stop it. All my mind could think was, “I think Kansas can win the Big 12.” And here I am several days later saying the same thing.
If, and it is a big if, Daniels stays healthy and plays 10, 11 or maybe even 12 games this season, the Jayhawks can take home a bunch of victories. Sure, the defense might be a bit of trouble, but the offense was humming enough against Fresno State for me to believe that there’s some legitimate firepower there. It all hinges on Daniels’ health, though, and as we’ve seen over the past several seasons, he’s always liable to get injured.
Much like with Iowa State, the coaching situation is one that I firmly and wholeheartedly support. Lance Leipold resurrected this program from the ashes, and while there hasn’t been complete restoration (if there was anything to restore in the first place), it’s definitely possible that 2025 could be a season where his team gets one step closer to that goal.
My prediction: OVER
Kansas State (8.5)
Just as with Iowa State and Kansas, I acknowledge that my prediction about K-State’s win total is tainted by one result already being in the books. However, I swear that my pick was not swayed one way or the other by the Wildcats’ loss on Saturday.
Despite potentially playing better than Iowa State on the whole, K-State’s frequent mistakes and blunders cost it an opportunity to leave Dublin with a win. Avery Johnson, as talented as he is, still seems to be finding himself as the starting quarterback. That’s fine, but you’d like to see that sorted out sooner rather than later.
If I were doing this purely based on vibes (I am), then I’d have to take into account the crazy turn of events that transpired following the game involving Johnson’s brother and father. Those two, for some reason, got into a knockdown, drag-out tussle that was caught on camera for all the world to see. The reason for the fight is unknown, but what we do know is that it’s a terrible look, and the vibes are in the toilet.
I’m sorry, K-State fans. I’m going under. If you want to blame anybody, blame the Johnson family for turning the Aviva Stadium parking lot into a WWE match.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on Kansas State’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Oklahoma State (5.5)
This win total feels disrespectful, but given how 2024 went for the Cowboys, it’s understandable.
After starting the season 3-0, the Pokes went on an unprecedented run of terribleness throughout the rest of the year, losing the rest of their games. The quarterback play was abysmal, the coaching was noticeably absent-minded, and most importantly, the vibes were in the toilet. For the first time since 2005, Oklahoma State didn’t make a bowl game. It was that bad.
As the Cowboys attempt to turn the page and forget about the bad and look forward to the potential good, several questions arise. First, is Gundy’s heart still in this? He’s expressed his discontent with the direction the sport has been headed for several years now, and it’s become apparent to many that he’s not completely comfortable operating in this new environment. Second, what’s the QB situation going to look like? TCU transfer Hauss Heijny was announced as the starter for the season opener, but Zane Flores is also waiting in the wings and should get consistent playing time. Third, if this season doesn’t go well, where does Oklahoma State go?
I’ve toiled long and hard about which way to go with this pick, and after an offseason’s worth of contemplation, I have decided that the Cowboys, while improved, will fall short of six wins. As such, the Gundy era in Stillwater might just be coming to an end.
My prediction: UNDER
TCU (6.5)
The following is partly an excerpt from The Ultimate Big 12 Preseason Poll.
While the people at CBS Sports don’t seem to think that this season is a make-or-break year for Horned Frogs’ head coach Sonny Dykes, I’m inclined to say that it should be.
Ever since his magical inaugural run in Fort Worth that saw the program reach the College Football Playoff, and subsequently the national championship game, TCU football has regressed back to the mean. 2023 was a disappointment as the team went 5-7 and missed a bowl. 2024, while an improvement in many regards—the Horned Frogs went 9-4 and won the New Mexico Bowl in dominant fashion over Louisiana—still could’ve been so much better. Constant questionable coaching decisions and multiple head-scratching losses to conference bottom-dwellers like UCF and Houston tainted what otherwise could be looked at as a positive campaign.
Despite multiple key pieces departing, like Savion Williams and Jack Bech, the talent is there for TCU to compete for a Big 12 championship. Josh Hoover is entering his second season as the full-time starting quarterback and should be completely acclimated to offensive coordinator Kendal Briles’ system. Evan McAlister could’ve declared for the draft but instead decided to stay one more year as he tries to lead the receiving corps for the Frogs.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Andy Avalos should have the troops ready to go, as any uncertainty about the success of his new scheme should be done and dusted heading into year two.
TCU is firmly in the mix of teams to contend for a Big 12 title, and that should probably be the expectation. Once you dangle a national championship appearance in front of fans, they start to get hungry for more. While that’s not attainable in 2025, some impressive hardware in the form of a Big 12 championship would probably be enough to suppress that appetite for success.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on TCU’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Texas Tech (8.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
The Red Raiders brought in the second-highest transfer portal class (only behind LSU), thanks to oil billionaire and alum Cody Campbell and a slew of other rich donors. Texas Tech’s roster is now filled with money, money, money, and more money. It was an insane development, and one that folks in Lubbock hope pays dividends in the form of wins.
New offensive coordinator Mark Leftwich will lead an offense that features returning quarterback Behren Morton and a wealth of talented receivers such as Micah Hudson, Reggie Virgil, Roy Alexander, Caleb Douglas, and Coy Eakin. With a shored-up offensive line, watch out for the Red Raiders to continue to sling the rock around like no other team in the land.
Defensively, Texas Tech improved quite a bit. Transfers Lee Hunter, Skyler Gill-Howard, Anthony Holmes Jr., David Bailey, Romello Height, and Brice Pollack all bring star power and ability to a defense that severely lacked both of those last season. Should the unit improve to the level that is expected, then watch out because the conference championship could be on the horizon.
Essentially, the goal for Texas Tech is to become a conference contender overnight. Lofty? Yes. Attainable? Also yes.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Texas Tech’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
UCF (5.5)
Scott Frost is back in Orlando, and that might be enough for some to declare the Knights “back,” but I’m going to need a bit more time to fully see the vision. Frost’s tenure at Nebraska was so meh that the prospect of UCF being what it was before he left is questionable to me, at best. When he was there, the Knights were members of the American and ran that conference from head to toe. Now, as part of the Big 12, they’re no longer at the top of the food chain.
It’ll be a rebuilding year, and that’s OK as long as the subsequent seasons show improvement. Success doesn’t always appear overnight, and that’s the most likely scenario when it comes to UCF in 2025.
My prediction: UNDER
Utah (7.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
Last year’s crazy disappointment of a season has to be a blip on the radar, right?
I attribute much of the disaster-fest that was the 2024 Utah Utes to Cam Rising’s injury in Week 2 against Baylor. If that doesn’t occur, and Rising is healthy the entire campaign, Utah probably is a contender for a Big 12 title. Alas, that didn’t happen, and instead, the Utes went 5-7 in their inaugural season in the conference.
Some positive regression is bound to strike Kyle Whittingham’s squad, and with new quarterback Devon Dampier—a player who’s been highly touted all offseason—I believe that a lot of wins will be coming Utah’s way.
When the Utes jumped ship from the sinking Pac-12 and ran over to the Big 12, it was expected that they’d be right up there in the standings with the best of the conference right away. With that not happening immediately, people in Salt Lake City began to get a little nervous. Don’t fear, however, as Utah is going to make it back to Arlington this season. Take that to the bank, I dare you.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Utah’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
West Virginia (5.5)
Just like with UCF, West Virginia reunited with an old flame in Rich Rodriguez. And much like the Knights, everybody involved with the operation there has admitted that 2025 is probably going to be a retooling season.
A completely brand-new roster now inhabits the football facility in Morgantown—West Virginia led the nation in total transfers added with 54. How well do those players gel with Rodriguez’s system, and how many wins come of that?
Morgantown is a tough place to play; it’s hard to get to, and the fans there are always supportive even if the team is not playing well. There’s bound to be at least one, if not several, Big 12 teams that travel to Milan Puskar Stadium and find themselves in a tough battle with the Mountaineers. Whether that includes West Virginia pulling off a couple of upsets is up in the air, though I’m on the under regardless.
West Virginia football always seems to find a way to be in the mix, and while I don’t think that’s occurring in 2025, I wouldn’t be surprised if we find ourselves predicting the Big 12 win totals next season and we’re all wholeheartedly on the over for the Mountaineers in 2026.
My prediction: UNDER