Projecting the Win Totals for Every SEC Team

How many games is each SEC team going to win this fall?

AP Photo

What words come to mind when you think about the SEC? For me, the following words/phrases pop into my head when pondering what many would consider the best conference in all of college sports:

• Dominant

• Tradition-rich

• Physical

• Recruiting hotbed

• Powerhouse

• Unforgiving

It might be that last word that describes the current form of the conference best. Pretty much every SEC schedule, with the exception of a few, is unforgiving. Week in and week out, the best that college football has to offer step onto the gridiron and duke it out. It’s a relentless battle every time Saturday rolls around.

That makes predicting SEC win totals all the more difficult. Never has this league felt more wide open. In seasons past, the list of schools that could have made it to Atlanta and won the conference would have been two-to-three deep, if that. Now, you could list seven schools that could win this whole thing, and that might not even be the extent of it. But while the competitiveness at the top is increasing, the unfortunate few that don’t have the resources to play with the big boys are falling even further behind. That’s what happens when you continue to add schools that only make the schedule more difficult. Take the checks, take the losses.

In the final part of my win totals series, it’s finally time to tackle the giant that is the SEC. From Alabama to Vanderbilt, everybody’s going to get its moment in the sun. For those who are unfamiliar, here’s a little blurb from my previous posts regarding what this whole thing is about:

This exercise is quite simple: for every team in the conference, I’ll predict whether that particular school will go over or under its projected win total. That win total, for the uninitiated, is put out by sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, MGM, etc. I am not a gambler, nor do I suggest anyone partake in the practice, but the number those entities generate is helpful in setting a baseline for how well or poorly a school will do in a particular campaign.

As I always say, let’s get into it.

All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless explicitly mentioned otherwise. Win total lines are listed in parentheses next to the team names.

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Alabama (9.5)

The following is partly an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.

Last year was an anomaly—Alabama is back.

Kalen DeBoer didn’t start his time in Tuscaloosa on the best footing. Losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Michigan (in the bowl game) left a terrible taste in many people’s mouths, most notably the Crimson Tide faithful, who aren’t afraid to criticize at a moment’s notice. Still, there’s much to like about the 2025 iteration of the squad, one that I ascertain to be one of the best in America.

In order for Alabama to succeed, all it has to do is not royally screw up like it did a year ago. If it doesn’t fall short in the “easy” games on its schedule, then a trip to the playoff and a chance to once again be on top of the college football world will be theirs for the taking. But with a new quarterback in Ty Simpson, there could be some growing pains toward the beginning of the season. Luckily for Simpson and the rest of the offense, their head coach is one of the most intelligent minds in the industry, and he’ll be ready to handle whatever adversity might come their way.

To be honest, I’m quite high on Alabama. Winning a national championship is not out of the question, let alone the SEC. If we see DeBoer at his coaching peak, there’s no limit to where the Crimson Tide can go.

My prediction: OVER

For more of my thoughts on Alabama’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.

Previewing and predicting Alabama's season

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Arkansas (5.5)

Sam Pittman is entering year six as the head coach of the Razorbacks, and it’s apparent that things are worse now than when he started. In his second season in Fayetteville, Arkansas went 9-4, including big wins over Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Penn State. It’s all been downhill ever since. The Hogs are 18-20 overall and 7-17 in the SEC in the seasons since, and it appears that it could be even worse in 2025.

Here’s a question: is Pittman the main problem, or does the root cause of Arkansas’ football dysfunction lie deeper within? Personally, I lean more toward the latter assessment. People across Arkansas care about Razorback football more than countless fanbases in the country. No matter how the team performs, they’ll always be there. Unfortunately, the suits in charge don’t seem to want to provide the program with the necessary resources to help accomplish the goals that everybody seems to agree need to be accomplished. It’s a shame.

The schedule is a monster—Ole Miss, Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Auburn all await before Halloween, and then LSU and Texas make up half of the November slate. Getting to a bowl would be a victory in and of itself. Heck, winning five would be quite the task too.

I wish I could be more confident in the Hogs, but I can’t. The Pittman era might soon be coming to an end if what I think is going to happen to Arkansas this season actually transpires.

My prediction: UNDER

For more of my thoughts on Arkansas’ 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.

Previewing and predicting Arkansas' season

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Auburn (7.5)

Auburn’s been building to this season ever since Hugh Freeze took the job back in 2023. The plan seemed simple and excellent: load up the recruiting classes for two seasons, and then strike at the transfer portal prior to 2025 to make a super team that can finally bring Auburn back to where it wants to be. The first part of that plan seemed to be executed quite well, but the second part—not so much.