What words come to mind when you think about the SEC? For me, the following words/phrases pop into my head when pondering what many would consider the best conference in all of college sports:
Dominant
Tradition-rich
Physical
Recruiting hotbed
Powerhouse
Unforgiving
It might be that last word that describes the current form of the conference best. Pretty much every SEC schedule, with the exception of a few, is unforgiving. Week in and week out, the best that college football has to offer step onto the gridiron and duke it out. It’s a relentless battle every time Saturday rolls around.
That makes predicting SEC win totals all the more difficult. Never has this league felt more wide open. In seasons past, the list of schools that could have made it to Atlanta and won the conference would have been two-to-three deep, if that. Now, you could list seven schools that could win this whole thing, and that might not even be the extent of it. But while the competitiveness at the top is increasing, the unfortunate few that don’t have the resources to play with the big boys are falling even further behind. That’s what happens when you continue to add schools that only make the schedule more difficult. Take the checks, take the losses.
In the final part of my win totals series, it’s finally time to tackle the giant that is the SEC. From Alabama to Vanderbilt, everybody’s going to get its moment in the sun. For those who are unfamiliar, here’s a little blurb from my previous posts regarding what this whole thing is about:
This exercise is quite simple: for every team in the conference, I’ll predict whether that particular school will go over or under its projected win total. That win total, for the uninitiated, is put out by sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, MGM, etc. I am not a gambler, nor do I suggest anyone partake in the practice, but the number those entities generate is helpful in setting a baseline for how well or poorly a school will do in a particular campaign.
As I always say, let’s get into it.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless explicitly mentioned otherwise. Win total lines are listed in parentheses next to the team names.
Alabama (9.5)
The following is partly an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
Last year was an anomaly—Alabama is back.
Kalen DeBoer didn’t start his time in Tuscaloosa on the best footing. Losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Michigan (in the bowl game) left a terrible taste in many people’s mouths, most notably the Crimson Tide faithful, who aren’t afraid to criticize at a moment’s notice. Still, there’s much to like about the 2025 iteration of the squad, one that I ascertain to be one of the best in America.
In order for Alabama to succeed, all it has to do is not royally screw up like it did a year ago. If it doesn’t fall short in the “easy” games on its schedule, then a trip to the playoff and a chance to once again be on top of the college football world will be theirs for the taking. But with a new quarterback in Ty Simpson, there could be some growing pains toward the beginning of the season. Luckily for Simpson and the rest of the offense, their head coach is one of the most intelligent minds in the industry, and he’ll be ready to handle whatever adversity might come their way.
To be honest, I’m quite high on Alabama. Winning a national championship is not out of the question, let alone the SEC. If we see DeBoer at his coaching peak, there’s no limit to where the Crimson Tide can go.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Alabama’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Arkansas (5.5)
Sam Pittman is entering year six as the head coach of the Razorbacks, and it’s apparent that things are worse now than when he started. In his second season in Fayetteville, Arkansas went 9-4, including big wins over Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Penn State. It’s all been downhill ever since. The Hogs are 18-20 overall and 7-17 in the SEC in the seasons since, and it appears that it could be even worse in 2025.
Here’s a question: is Pittman the main problem, or does the root cause of Arkansas’ football dysfunction lie deeper within? Personally, I lean more toward the latter assessment. People across Arkansas care about Razorback football more than countless fanbases in the country. No matter how the team performs, they’ll always be there. Unfortunately, the suits in charge don’t seem to want to provide the program with the necessary resources to help accomplish the goals that everybody seems to agree need to be accomplished. It’s a shame.
The schedule is a monster—Ole Miss, Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Auburn all await before Halloween, and then LSU and Texas make up half of the November slate. Getting to a bowl would be a victory in and of itself. Heck, winning five would be quite the task too.
I wish I could be more confident in the Hogs, but I can’t. The Pittman era might soon be coming to an end if what I think is going to happen to Arkansas this season actually transpires.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on Arkansas’ 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Auburn (7.5)
Auburn’s been building to this season ever since Hugh Freeze took the job back in 2023. The plan seemed simple and excellent: load up the recruiting classes for two seasons, and then strike at the transfer portal prior to 2025 to make a super team that can finally bring Auburn back to where it wants to be. The first part of that plan seemed to be executed quite well, but the second part—not so much.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, the portal class this past offseason wasn’t filled with studs and stars like those in previous cycles. The quarterback pickings were extremely slim, and with Auburn desperately needing a new signal-caller, it was forced to reach on the potential of a former five-star recruit in Jackson Arnold. If he’s what he was promised to be coming out of Denton Guyer High School, Auburn’s going to be dynamite. If not, it could get ugly quickly.
Given what he exhibited at Oklahoma last season—where he appeared visibly not confident and indecisive—I fear that the latter scenario is much more likely. Auburn will make a bowl, though that’ll probably not be good enough for Freeze to retain his job.
My prediction: UNDER
Florida (7.5)
The following is partly an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
Everything hinges on DJ Lagway. With him at quarterback, there is no ceiling for the 2025 Florida Gators.
That’s not entirely true—the roster around him is quite talented—but without Lagway, this team is a shell of itself, and the heights it can reach immediately fall off a cliff should he not be available. His presence is a massive question mark, too, with all the injury concerns that he dealt with last season and during spring and fall camp this year. Can he be relied upon to take the football field every Saturday? Right now, that’s up in the air.
If he does, Florida could genuinely win it all. I can’t be certain that he’ll always be there and ready to go, which is why I slotted the Gators lower in the D Poll than their potential. There’s also the fact that head coach Billy Napier actually has to prove to the country that he can win games at Florida with the talented roster that he’s assembled. Since I’m in the “Believe in Billy” camp, I’m so over you wouldn’t even believe it. If Lagway is healthy, then I don’t know if anything Napier does even matters anyway. Just put the boys on the field and let them win some football games.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Florida’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Georgia (9.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
Carson Beck is gone, and Georgia is all the better for it.
That’s somewhat of a joke, though I’m sure if you asked the players in the locker room in Athens, they’d tell you that’s as true a statement as “the sky is blue.” Beck was probably not the leader of men that his position required, and that showed at times as the Bulldogs maneuvered their way through what was a weird 2024.
Even the oddities of the season didn’t stop Georgia from winning the SEC and earning a bye in the first-ever 12-team CFP. If it weren’t for Beck’s arm injury in the SEC Championship, there’s a real possibility that Georgia would have advanced much further in the postseason than it actually did.
Kirby Smart is the best coach in college football, no ifs, ands, or buts. The roster he coaches is also the deepest, the most talented, and the most ready to take a game by the scruff of its neck. Georgia is filled with NFL players. I think it’s safe to say that’s the reason for its success.
It’s a little weird that Georgia, of all schools, is flying under the radar, but it is. Nobody seems to remember what that place is capable of, despite it being one of the best teams in the land just one season ago. Watch out for Georgia. You don’t want to be caught napping when the Bulldogs show up at your door.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Georgia’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Kentucky (4.5)
In an SEC that’s filled to the brim with great teams (or at least those that have the potential to be great), somebody has to take the brunt of the losses. In 2025, and perhaps beyond, that’s going to be Kentucky.
It’s OK that Kentucky values basketball more than football. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but the SEC will always be a football-first conference, and as such, the Wildcats are going to be losing many games moving forward until that mindset switches just a tiny bit.
Head coach Mark Stoops was once one of the darlings every year when the hiring carousel began to spin. Remember when he almost took the Texas A&M job less than two years ago? Yeah, I don’t think any rumors like that are going to be circling anytime soon with how bad Kentucky’s fixing to be this season. I’m sure Wildcats fans are itching for basketball, anyway.
My prediction: UNDER
LSU (8.5)
The following is partly an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
Is it too grand to say that this is a make-or-break year for Brian Kelly at LSU? No, certainly not.
Kelly is making roughly $10 million a year and has been in Baton Rouge since 2022. In three seasons, the Tigers have won the SEC zero times and have made the CFP zero times. For the amount of cash that LSU has invested in the Kelly regime, both in him and in assets on the field, the results have been subpar.
It’s time for that to change. With the top transfer portal class in the land, as well as a veteran quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, folks down in Louisiana’s capital are confident that some winning can be done in 2025. I’m sure they realize that it’s necessary for such a feat to take place, because if it doesn’t, then Kelly is out the door.
Unfortunately for him, I’m not too certain that the goals that LSU wishes to accomplish are feasible. Too many questions persist regarding the offensive line, and how much can we count on the defense continuing to improve? While I don’t think that the Tigers will be abysmal, winning more than eight games might be too much of a stretch.
My prediction: UNDER
For more of my thoughts on LSU’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Mississippi State (3.5)
Much like Arkansas and Kentucky, go ahead and throw Mississippi State among the list of teams that other, better SEC schools are going to beat up on this season. Actually, I take that back. It’s offensive, and wrong quite frankly, to lump Arkansas and Kentucky with the disaster-fest that is the Mississippi State football program. I’m sorry for even suggesting such a thing.
Mississippi State does not employ an SEC-caliber roster, plain and simple. As such, it’s been the laughingstock of the league for a couple of years now, and this win total suggests just that. The Bulldogs didn’t manage to win a conference contest in 2024, and I predict that a similar fate will fall upon them this year as well. Heck, there’s even a possibility that Southern Miss beats them in Week 1.
Take the checks, take the losses.
My prediction: UNDER
Missouri (6.5)
Eliah Drinkwitz might be one of the best coaches in the country, and he’s once again been blessed with a schedule that’s a breeze, at least at first.
Missouri could be 5-0 right out of the gate, with home bouts against Kansas and South Carolina being the only significant hurdles. And while the remaining SEC games are harder, most of the tricky ones are at home—Alabama and Texas A&M both have to travel to Columbia. Sure, Mizzou will be faced with Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium, Oklahoma in Norman, and Arkansas in rowdy Fayetteville, but that’s not all too bad considering that those three programs could be down in the dumps anyway. This schedule is a gift.
All that might make it sound like I’m picking Missouri to win 10 or 11 games, but I am not. If you had told me that Penn State transfer Beau Pribula would have had this much difficulty winning the starting quarterback job at the beginning of the offseason, I’d have started panicking. Alas, that’s where we’re at, as Missouri is utilizing a two-quarterback system with Pribula and junior Sam Horn in its season opener against Central Arkansas. That’s not too abnormal on paper, but the reports out of Mizzou’s fall camp regarding Pribula have not been great.
If Drinkwitz’s squad doesn’t have reliable quarterback play, the once “easy” schedule becomes much more of a gauntlet. As such, I’m slightly under on the Tigers. I admit that this is purely living in the moment of the Pribula news, yet I’m still very confident in my Mizzou pessimism.
My prediction: UNDER
Oklahoma (7.5)
It feels like half of college football is about to embark on a “make-or-break season,” and Oklahoma is no exception. Fourth-year head coach Brent Venables took over a program from Lincoln Riley that, while consistently winning, seemed to be littered with internal culture problems. It’s taken a while to clean it all up, but according to Venables and his staff, this season might be the one where it all comes together.
A new offensive coordinator in Ben Arbuckle, as well as a new star quarterback in John Mateer, headlines the offseason change. Cal transfer Jadyn Ott was also a massive addition to the running back room, and while not as impactful as Mateer, should help with the ground attack immensely. Last season’s offense was hampered by Jackson Arnold’s inconsistencies as well as an insane number of injuries at the receiver position. Arbuckle and company are certainly looking to make what was inept a year ago a strength.
The defense should be one of the best in the SEC. That’s Venables’ specialty after all, and the job he’s done turning that unit around after it was left in shambles following the Riley years has been extraordinary. Of course, he also has to make sure everything, including the offense, is working cohesively. That’ll be his main challenge in 2025.
I think he can do it. Sure, the schedule is one of the toughest in all of the sport, but with a quarterback that’s worth betting on and a defense that should be up to snuff with the rest of the conference, it’s more likely than not that Oklahoma can win at least eight games.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Oklahoma’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Ole Miss (8.5)
Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss teams have been transfer portal central. Without that strategy of roster building, what he’s been able to do there would have been impossible.
Last season was the year where the success needed to come through. And while the Rebels went 9-3 in the regular season and beat high-end opponents like Georgia, some bone-headed losses to Kentucky, LSU, and Florida derailed any possibility of a trip to the College Football Playoff. There could be an argument that they were screwed out of a bid, but there’s no doubt that it was a massive missed opportunity.
With Jaxson Dart’s departure to the NFL, it’s Austin Simmons’ turn to lead the offense. He didn’t get many reps last season, but some of that experience could prove pretty valuable, especially his impressive brief stint in the win against Georgia (5-for-6 passing for 64 yards).
Just like at quarterback, Ole Miss needed to replace quality production at countless other positions as well. According to Bill Connelly at ESPN, the Rebels’ “offensive players made 143 starts last season; those responsible for just 31 return.” Yikes. That’s quite a lot of turnover from a team that was the best Ole Miss squad in over 60 years. While Kiffin is an expert at building a roster from the transfer portal, replacing that much production is just too much to ask. Ole Miss will be good this year, but not great enough to contend for the SEC.
My prediction: UNDER
South Carolina (7.5)
The following is partly an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
Is there any other program in America that’s on the upswing quite like South Carolina? Following an encouraging finish to 2024 that ended in Gamecocks fans being up in arms that they were left out of the College Football Playoff, as well as the return of several key playmakers—quarterback LaNorris Sellers being chief among them—the vibes are high in Columbia.
Shane Beamer’s squad did lose quite a bit of talent to the NFL Draft—five Gamecocks were selected—but as mentioned above, there’s some real talent returning that should make a massive impact this season. Sellers is the key, obviously. His continued improvement and health are what will keep South Carolina in the SEC race down the stretch. Without him, the prospect of going over this total is ludicrous.
On one hand, the Gamecocks have enough talent to push for a CFP berth if everything plays out right. On the other, the schedule is brutal—bouts against Missouri, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Clemson await—and the overall inconsistency of the Beamer era looms large. 2025 will be a weekly struggle to prove to people that they can sustain success week in and week out. If they do, watch out for South Carolina, because it’ll be playoff-bound.
My prediction: OVER
Tennessee (8.5)
We’ve finally arrived at the Tennessee conundrum. Josh Heupel has resurrected the Volunteers into a perennial winner, both via some excellent recruiting and also an offensive scheme that seemed to catch SEC defenses by surprise over the first couple of seasons of its implementation. He’s a great coach, and he was awarded for his efforts with a contract extension just the other day.
But the conference is waking up to the offensive system, and that began to show last season. Much of the blame for the inconsistencies was put on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, though in hindsight there’s some evidence that it should instead be laid at the feet of the scheme itself and the defensive adjustments that other teams were making. We’ll know fairly quickly if that was actually the case since Iamaleava is no longer with the program, with UCLA transfer Joey Aguilar replacing him.
Whether adjustments are made on Tennessee’s end when it comes to the offense is yet to be seen. Should that occur, there’s a fair amount of confidence that the Volunteers can make another trip to the College Football Playoff. If not, then there’s a definite possibility that 2025 proves to be a step in the wrong direction.
Scenario two is my pick. Aguilar is not a quarterback I have a tremendous amount of faith in, and the weapons around him just aren’t as fantastic as Tennessee teams of the past. My challenge to the Volunteers is to prove me wrong. Go make the playoff, I dare you.
My prediction: UNDER
Texas A&M (7.5)
The following is an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Texas A&M can be better than 8-4 this season. The roster is the second-most talented in the state of Texas; it’s filled with studs at almost every position. But can it get the 8-4 monkey off its back and finally realize the dream of an SEC title?
Mike Elko came in to change the culture, and I’m convinced he successfully did so last season. Even then, the plague of 8-4 remained constant. It’s now Elko’s job to parlay the successful wins off the field in both recruiting and culture into wins on the field. I think he can do it.
He’ll have to do so with returning quarterback Marcel Reed, who I’m unfortunately not too high on. While he was the best signal-caller on the roster last season—Connor Weigman was impressing absolutely nobody with what he was doing—there was still much room to improve for Reed. Another year in offensive coordinator Collin Klein’s system should help, but I’m still a little wary of putting all my eggs into Reed’s basket.
Regardless, should the roster click like it could, Texas A&M’s ceiling is 10 or 11 wins. Or maybe the 8-4 curse is an ever-present entity that the Aggies will never be able to shake off. Only time will tell.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Texas A&M’s 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Texas (9.5)
The following is partly an excerpt from the preseason D Poll.
It’s safe to say that Texas is officially back. Two straight trips to the playoff have eliminated any possibility of anybody yelling about the Longhorns being unable to play up to their potential. Steve Sarkisian has built a powerhouse in Austin. All that’s left to do is actually take hold of the sport by the neck and win the big one.
Everybody knows that Arch Manning is finally getting his shot to be the starting quarterback. Everybody also knows that if he’s as good as we all think, then Texas will no doubt be playing for the SEC title, but also the national title as well. It all hinges on Manning, and I’m fairly confident that he’s really that guy.
The schedule is also one that leads me to believe that the Longhorns are for real. Only four difficult games lie in front of them: Week 1 against Ohio State, Red River in Dallas versus Oklahoma, a trip to Athens to play Georgia, and a home bout against rival Texas A&M on Black Friday. Win two out of four, and they’re easily in the playoff. Win three out of four, and they’re the real deal. Win all four, and we might be witnessing one of the best teams ever assembled.
It’s cliché to say that college football is better when “X” is playing well, but I’d say that’s certainly true for Texas. With the Longhorns back in the national conversation, everybody in the Lone Star State, as well as America, seems to be more excited about what the 2025 season could bring.
My prediction: OVER
For more of my thoughts on Texas’ 2025 season, click the link below to listen to Seth’s College Football Corner.
Vanderbilt (4.5)
Diego Pavia is back, and so are the Commodores. As Tom Fornelli said on the Cover 3 Podcast, “Over by October!”
Maybe I’m too busy riding the high of beating Alabama, but I feel as though Vanderbilt is a lock to make a bowl. Here’s the plan: beat Charleston Southern (easy), Virginia Tech (should be a piece of cake), Georgia State (uh, no problem there), and Utah State (I mean, is that even a question?), and there are four wins before the month of October even begins. Steal the game against South Carolina in Columbia, and there might be a world where the Commodores are knocking on the door of the top 25.
As always, the SEC schedule is quite challenging, but with Pavia at the helm, there’s definitely a world where Vanderbilt takes down somebody it usually wouldn’t. Alabama probably isn’t a candidate for such an upset again this season, but LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee definitely could be if Vanderbilt plays its A-game.
I just don’t think there’s any way that 4-8 or worse is on the table. Clark Lea is a great coach, and despite overwhelming odds, his Vanderbilt Commodores are going to continue to improve.
My prediction: OVER