The Case for Norway as the World Cup's Ultimate Dark Horse
Erling Haaland may be the biggest reason to believe, but Norway's dominance in qualifying and electric start to the tournament suggest this Cinderella story could have a shocking ending.
Norway — yes, Norway — is my dark horse to win this World Cup.
Before you accuse me of having completely lost my mind, I think it’s important to define exactly what a dark horse is. In real life, a dark horse is exactly that: a horse with a darker complexion. In sports, though, a dark horse is something a bit more magical. It’s a team that emerges from the shadows when everybody else is busy staring at the giants. It’s not supposed to be obvious. If everybody thinks a team can win the World Cup, then that team isn’t a dark horse — it’s just a contender.
That’s why Morocco doesn’t quite fit the bill anymore. It announced itself to the world in 2022 with that brilliant semifinal run and has remained one of Africa’s premier nations ever since. The United States is another popular pick. Heck, I probably would’ve picked the Americans if Mauricio Pochettino hadn’t spent the last two weeks convincing everybody else to believe in them too. Turkey would’ve been a decent choice, but Turkey is somehow everybody’s dark horse every tournament and, more often than not, ends up breaking hearts. All of those options are great — minus Turkey — but they aren’t the true dark horse of this World Cup.
It’s Norway.
Yes, you heard me correctly. Norway is my dark horse to win this World Cup. Not to make the quarterfinals. Not to make a cute little Cinderella run to the semifinals before bowing out to France or Argentina. Win the whole darn thing. I know how absurd that sounds on the surface. This is a nation making its first World Cup appearance since 1998. Most people reading this probably know Norway for one of two things: it gets cold there and fjords. It doesn’t have the history of Brazil, Germany or Argentina. It doesn’t even have the recent pedigree of a country like Croatia or Morocco. For most of the last two decades, Norway has been little more than an afterthought on the international stage, a nation with some talented players that could never quite put all the pieces together. But all of that exists firmly in the past. Right now — here in the present — Norway is here to play, and I don’t think enough people appreciate just how dangerous this team has become.
The warning signs were there long before the World Cup started. Drawn into a qualification group alongside Italy, Israel, Estonia and Moldova, Norway didn’t simply win the group — it obliterated it. Eight matches, eight victories. Thirty-seven goals scored and only five allowed. Italy, a nation that has won four World Cups and spent decades bullying its way through international tournaments, was beaten twice. I know the Italians haven’t exactly been themselves lately — seriously, what on Earth is going on with Italian football? — but that’s still an incredible accomplishment.
The most important thing was that Norway didn’t stumble its way through qualification on luck or moments of brief brilliance. It looked dominant, confident and comfortable in its own skin. This was a legitimately excellent soccer team that had finally realized how good it could be.
Then came the World Cup draw, and things got interesting. France immediately stood out as one of the favorites to lift the trophy out of Group I. Senegal remains one of the deepest and most talented teams in Africa, a nation that will gladly tell you it should’ve won more on the international stage by now. Iraq wasn’t nearly as intimidating, but that’s still two difficult matches waiting for Norway before the knockout rounds. And yet, so far, things couldn’t have gone much better.
A 4-1 victory over Iraq got things started, and then came an entertaining 3-2 win over Senegal that all but secured passage into the knockout rounds. Everything has clicked, particularly the attack, which has been downright terrifying. And that’s where I’ve buried the lede a bit because, wonderful as Norway has been collectively, this story inevitably comes back to one man.
Erling Haaland.
I know that’s not a groundbreaking observation. Still, I don’t think enough people — especially here in the United States — appreciate how uniquely terrifying he is in a tournament setting. A brute force up front, Haaland is the world’s best striker. You can argue with me if you’d like, but I think I’d win. If you’re a goalkeeper and Haaland is charging at you with the ball at his feet, your body isn’t producing courage or confidence — it’s producing panic. Pure panic.
The man is built like a Norse god, moves like a freight train and finishes chances with a ruthlessness that almost feels unfair. Through two World Cup matches, he’s scored four goals: two against Iraq and two more against Senegal. There was a world where Haaland arrived at football’s grandest stage for the first time and struggled under the pressure. For all the goals he’d scored at Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City, there was always the possibility that international soccer’s biggest test would prove different. Oh, how foolish a thought that was. Haaland has instead become exactly what everybody hoped he would be: one of the biggest stars at the biggest tournament on Earth.
That’s why I believe. Not because Norway has the deepest roster. It doesn’t. In fact, it’s incredibly top-heavy, with Haaland and Arsenal’s Martin Ødegaard leading the charge. And not because Norway has the richest soccer history. It certainly doesn’t. I believe because when knockout soccer arrives and the margins become razor-thin, there’s immense value in having a player capable of scoring from absolutely nothing. Goals become scarce as tournaments progress and defenses become chippier. Space tends to disappear. Sometimes all you need is one extraordinary moment from one extraordinary player, and there are few players I’d rather have delivering that moment than Haaland.
Does that guarantee Norway a World Cup? Of course it doesn’t! Lionel Messi and Argentina are right there lurking around the corner. France — with Kylian Mbappé leading the charge — appears to once again be a juggernaut. Spain looks like it’s finally coming into its own with wonderkid Lamine Yamal. But dark horses aren’t supposed to be guarantees. They’re supposed to make you wonder if the impossible is actually possible. When I watch Norway, I can’t help but wonder exactly that.
Honestly, maybe I’m nuts. There’s a chance that you’ve been yelling at your screen the entire time because of how nuts I potentially am. But if Norway somehow lifts the trophy in a month’s time, I expect each and every one of you to pretend you believed all along, too.