The Saturday Storylines: 9-20-2025
Rivalries, prove-it Games, and playoff dreams collide in Week 4.
Since the middle of last season, I’ve delivered The Saturday Watchlist to your inbox every game day morning—a quick guide to the best matchups on the college football slate. From your feedback, I know it’s become a go-to resource for deciding what to watch. But many of you have pointed out one recurring gap: the Watchlist rarely highlights the key storylines unfolding around those games.
I couldn’t agree more.
So today I’m debuting The Saturday Storylines. Below you’ll find the biggest narratives I’ve circled for today. It’s not exhaustive, but it’s packed with enough intrigue to satisfy any college football fan.
The Saturday Storylines will publish alongside the Watchlist each game day morning, but it’s exclusive to paid SethStack members. If you haven’t joined yet and want the inside scoop on the day’s must-follow plots, click below to hop on board. Since this is the first time I’m dropping this, it’ll be free for all. I hope that if you enjoy the content that you decide to become a member. It would be much appreciated.
Here are The Saturday Storylines for September 20, 2025.
Time to Prove It
When Jackson Arnold transferred to Auburn to become the starting quarterback there, everybody circled Saturday, September 20, as his first major test of the season. Today is the day when he goes back to Norman to try to prove to that team that they made the wrong decision in letting him walk away.
As a team, Auburn also wants to show the college football world that it means business in the SEC. Hugh Freeze has been the head coach for the Tigers for three-plus seasons, and so far the dreams of competing at a high level in the conference have not been realized. With a tough schedule ahead of them that features games against Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Alabama, the time is now to start racking up some big-time wins versus quality opponents. Beating a top-15 ranked Oklahoma team on the road would be a fantastic step in the right direction.
Michigan and Nebraska also have an opportunity to prove it to people. The Wolverines failed their first evaluation a couple of weeks ago against the Sooners, but can make their mark in a tough road environment in Lincoln. Michigan’s been chasing the success of the latter years of Jim Harbaugh ever since he moved on to the NFL, with disappointing results. But with a potential star in freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, why not now for the Wolverines?
What could be holding them back is a wide-receiving corps that lacks any sort of pop or explosiveness. It doesn’t matter if Underwood is the most spectacular young signal-caller in the country if he has nobody to distribute the ball to. Through three games, that appears to be the case for Michigan, at least against opponents that match up well with the Wolverines. By no means is Nebraska’s defense a buzz saw, but it might be good enough to slow down Michigan’s mediocre pass catchers.
On the Nebraska side of things, it’s year three of Matt Rhule, which means that the Cornhuskers are due for a breakout season. The Matt Rhule Year Three Rule goes all the way back to the head coach’s time at Temple from 2013-16, where in his first two seasons he went 8-16, before experiencing a major boom in year three with a 10-4 record. The same goes for his tenure at Baylor from 2017-19. Years one and two produced lackluster results, then in year three the Bears made the Big 12 title game and narrowly lost to Oklahoma in overtime. So far, the trend appears to be continuing, with Rhule putting up a 12-13 record in his first two seasons in Lincoln.
Much like Underwood at Michigan, Huskers quarterback Dylan Raiola entered college with immense expectations. Not all of that potential has been fully realized just yet, but there have been flashes, especially against lesser teams like Akron and Houston Christian, where Raiola went a combined 39 of 52 for 586 yards and six touchdowns. Should he and the offense, under offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, really start to click in front of a big crowd this afternoon, then perhaps Nebraska could be on the verge of a really special season.
Arch’s Final Opportunity to Get Right
Texas is playing Sam Houston tonight, which in years past would’ve been a no-go on the watchlist. And while it isn’t on The Saturday Watchlist today, I still implore everybody to at least keep an eye on how Arch Manning is playing versus the Bearkats.
Everybody is aware that Manning has struggled through three games. In the loss in Columbus on opening weekend, Arch’s mechanics looked funky, which seemed to cause him to be more inaccurate than we all thought possible. What saved his reputation, at least slightly, was that he was able to hit some big passes late in the game while Texas was attempting to mount a comeback after falling behind 14-0. That effort came up short, but there was still a little hope to cling to when it came to Manning’s ability to lead what a lot of people suspected to be the number-one team in the country.
Fast-forward two weeks and all of that optimism has been completely washed away. Arch’s stats in Week 2 against San Jose State might pop off the page—295 passing yards with four touchdowns and an interception—but anybody who actually watched the game knows that all those throws were wide open and he lacked zip on pretty much every pass. In other words, there was no conviction behind any of the throws.
Then there was last week, which I believe everybody agrees was an abject disaster. Everything appeared difficult, so much so that at one point Texas fans booed him off the field. While I don’t endorse booing a 21-year-old kid, his measly 44% completion percentage warranted it. At one point, he threw nine straight incompletions, which is just so insane given that this performance didn’t come against Georgia or Ohio State but against a UTEP squad that will, at best, be fighting for bowl eligibility.
There’s been rampant speculation that he’s hurt, which would explain the sudden bump in inaccurate passes and the general discomfort he appears to be in while in the pocket. His head coach, Steve Sarkisian, has repeatedly shot down any of those injury concerns, but this is college football, a sport where coaches are known to fib a bit regarding their players’ health status. Honestly, part of me wants him to be hurt because that’s easier to explain than just him being really bad.
Today’s a big day for Manning and the Texas offense, as it’s the final time that they’ll get to fully get right before SEC play begins on October 4 at Florida. The Longhorns can by no means accomplish their goals if their quarterback is playing like this. It needs to get fixed, now.
Massive Implications in the Big 12
Texas Tech and Utah are playing one another at 10 a.m. local time. Whoever decided such a thing needs to be put into college football prison.
In all seriousness, that bout between the Red Raiders and the Utes carries massive implications for the Big 12 race. The two teams are the projected favorites in the conference at the moment, with Utah’s brand-new offense paired up against Texas Tech’s money-loaded roster. It’s an insane match of styles that intrigues me to the maximum.
It’s hard to know too much about either team based on who they’ve played thus far. Regardless, both sides have been dominant, with Utah outscoring opponents 137-25 through three games while Texas Tech is averaging 58 points per game. Sure, it’s been against subpar competition, but that’s still extremely impressive.
Whoever wins today in Salt Lake City cements itself as the team to beat in the Big 12, at least in the early going. For that reason, this is the game to watch today. There’s so much going on around the sport, but few contests hold as much significance as Texas Tech–Utah.
Imagine telling somebody that five years ago. They would’ve scoffed so hard.
Don’t sleep on Arizona State–Baylor, either. While the game has lost some allure since the Sun Devils pooped the bed on the road in Starkville and Baylor couldn’t keep up with Auburn, the two teams still have all their conference goals right in front of them, starting tonight in Waco.
Arizona State’s offense has been a one-man show. Jordyn Tyson, while awesome and extraordinary, can’t be the only player that Sam Leavitt relies on to move the chains. If Dave Aranda is able to shut down Tyson and force Leavitt to pivot elsewhere, can Arizona State survive? That might be giving Baylor’s defense a bit too much credit, as through three games the Bears have been a sieve, allowing 356 yards per game. That number rises to 436.5 if you just consider the two contests against Power 4 competition.
All that can be neutralized by the powerful arm of Sawyer Robertson, who might be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in America. Robertson lit up the scene toward the latter end of last season and has continued to play well in 2025. Through three games, Robertson already has 1,070 passing yards as well as 10 touchdowns. If Arizona State can’t contain the Baylor passing attack, it might be game over for the Sun Devils.
Group of 5 CFP Race Heats Up
Tulane, Memphis, and North Texas all have made waves in the G5 playoff race early in the season, and all three of them have opportunities today to continue to march toward that goal.
Ole Miss welcomes Tulane in a game that, on paper, doesn’t appear to be all that challenging for the Rebels. But Tulane’s already taken down two Power 4 opponents—Northwestern and Duke—through the first several weeks of the season and definitely could give Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss some trouble should they let their guard down. After all, the Rebels play LSU next week and could potentially be looking ahead instead of focusing on the task at hand.
Memphis has been flying under the radar, at least when it comes to G5 teams that could make the CFP. The Tigers are 3-0, albeit against some less-than-quality foes in Chattanooga, Georgia State, and Troy. Nonetheless, Ryan Silverfield’s team has an opportunity at home versus Arkansas to show everybody that the time is now for Memphis. The question is whether the Tigers will be able to stop the Razorbacks. Actually, the inverse is true as well: can Arkansas’ defense, which showed itself to be not SEC-quality in the loss at Ole Miss, stop Memphis? I expect lots of points.
I didn’t hear anybody saying that North Texas could be in the mix for a playoff bid out of the G5 in the offseason, yet here we are. It’s obviously early, but after the Mean Green sent Washington State back to the Stone Age via a 59-10 victory last Saturday, people’s ears perked up a bit. Unlike the two teams mentioned above, North Texas isn’t facing a major Power 4 school this week. Instead, UNT will battle Army and the triple option, hoping to exorcise some of the demons from last year’s bout against the service academy where the Black Knights held the ball for over 41 minutes and won 14-3. Given UNT’s “easy” schedule compared to other G5 squads, they’ll probably have to win out to have a shot at making the CFP. Beat Army and they’ll be on their way toward achieving that goal.
Rivalries Not Renewed
TCU and SMU square off today in the 104th edition of the Battle for the Iron Skillet, with the rivalry’s future beyond this game uncertain. Due to TCU’s desire for more guaranteed home games, the rivalry is not on the schedule for whoever knows how long. It’s a shame, and it makes me sad.
I wrote about this game extensively on Thursday, so if you’re interested in that, go check out the article I wrote expressing my displeasure with the cancellation of this storied rivalry.
Also, go listen to the Bleav in TCU episode I did alongside my friend Zion Trammell breaking down this game and all the implications surrounding it. We got on our soap box several times.
Rivalries are the foundation on which college football is built, and it’s astounding to me that colleges can’t register this simple truth.
Bill Belichick’s Bounce Back?
After getting thumped by TCU on Labor Day, Bill Belichick and North Carolina have racked up two consecutive wins over Charlotte and Richmond. Now it’s time to see if the Tar Heels can actually do it against teams on their level as they travel to Orlando to face UCF.
UCF is no juggernaut—the Knights are in the midst of their own rebuild too—yet they’re favored by almost a touchdown versus Belichick’s Tar Heels. Still, I see a ton of national pundits picking North Carolina here, and I’m just not sure if that respect has been warranted just yet.
Win here, and UNC could finally be heading in a healthy direction. Lose, and this season could be even worse than we all originally imagined.
ICYMI
Here’s every post from SethStack for this week, so if you missed any of the content posted on the site, make sure to check it out!
