SWC Preview: Week 5
The Southwest Conference has been gone for 29 years, but I'm here to try and bring it back, one week at a time.
I wasn’t alive for a single second of the Southwest Conference’s existence. I was born in 2003; the Southwest Conference became defunct in 1996, when four members—Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech—merged with the Big 8 to form the Big 12. That left Houston, Rice, SMU, and TCU (Arkansas had already left for the SEC in 1992) to fend for themselves and find homes elsewhere in lesser leagues. As things stand, only Rice has not made it back to a Power 4 home: Houston and TCU have since joined the Big 12, and SMU became a member of the ACC.
From the stories I’ve heard and read, the Southwest Conference was the pinnacle of what college sports used to be. Tradition, pageantry, and rivalry were sizzling hot throughout the conference’s 82 years of existence, and since its demise in the 1990s, college football really hasn’t been the same. Rivalries once played every year have disappeared, and the sense of regionality that once carried across the sport has also fizzled out.
Even though I never saw it, I yearn for that time. I’ve spent hours trying to figure out a way to get us back there, only to reach the same conclusion: the cat is out of the bag, and it’s probably impossible to return. So I can only dream and wonder—and that’s what this new weekly post is all about.
Below, I’ve previewed every game for the former core members of the Southwest Conference: Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. If I can’t group these teams back together on the field, I’ll group them here. Every Thursday or Friday (depending on my schedule), I’ll release the SWC Preview, breaking down each former member of the conference and what’s happening for them that week. Some previews will focus more on a school’s individual matchup, while others will hone in on particular storylines surrounding that team’s season. It just depends on the week.
If you weren’t already aware, I love the regionality of college football. Without it, I don’t think this sport can stand toe-to-toe with the NFL. It’s a shame that the bigwigs in conference rooms have begun to take it away, so this is my last-ditch effort to keep it alive. Maybe if I write about these teams together, somebody somewhere will decide to put them back together for real. Probably not, though. Oh well. As Babe Ruth said, “It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up.” I’m trying, Babe. I really am.
Arkansas (2-2, 0-1 SEC)
vs. Notre Dame – 11 AM CT – ESPN
Both Arkansas and Notre Dame limp in like wounded animals. The Razorbacks have lost two straight gut punches, twice driving deep into enemy territory with a chance to take the lead late, only to cough up the ball—and the game. Notre Dame enters in a less perilous position vibes-wise but desperately needs a win to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive. Should the Fighting Irish fall, they might as well kiss a national title chance goodbye.
Points will be scored in Fayetteville tomorrow morning. Defense has been optional for both sides, especially Arkansas, which enters with the 73rd-ranked scoring defense in the country. Notre Dame isn’t much better: in its two games against quality opponents—Miami and Texas A&M—it gave up a combined 68 points.
Arkansas has officially entered must-win territory. Sam Pittman’s job has been on the line for the better part of three seasons, and he’s managed to survive each time. But the runway might finally be ending, especially if the Hogs can’t find a way to salvage seven or eight wins from this disastrous start. Upset Notre Dame in front of a home crowd yearning for a big win, and there’s a path back on track. If not, we all know how this story ends.
Prediction: Notre Dame wins and covers -4.5.
Baylor (2-2, 0-1 Big 12)
@ Oklahoma State – 2:30 PM CT – ESPN2
There’s no way Baylor heads to Stillwater and loses to an Oklahoma State team that just fired its head coach of 21 seasons on Tuesday—right? Right?
The Bears have been in this spot before. On October 31, 2021, TCU let go of Gary Patterson just six days before hosting No. 12 Baylor. Then, on a chilly Saturday, interim head coach Jerry Kill and backup quarterback Chandler Morris upset the Bears and ruined Dave Aranda’s chance to make the College Football Playoff in his second season in Waco.
It all feels familiar yet distant. That TCU squad actually had talent—several key pieces became integral to the 2022 run to the national championship game. The opposite is true for 2025’s Oklahoma State. After being run out of the stadium by Tulsa, it’s clear the Cowboys lack the talent to compete at the Power 4 level. Baylor should have no trouble.
Baylor is 2-2 and can’t afford a second conference loss this early. While it’d be difficult to lose to this version of Oklahoma State, with a quarterback who can barely play and interim coach Doug Meacham—on staff for less than a year—it’s not impossible, especially for Dave Aranda, who is always full of surprises, good and bad.
Prediction: Baylor wins, but Oklahoma State covers +20.5.
Houston (3-0, 1-0 Big 12)
at Oregon State – 9:30 PM CT – ESPN (Friday)
Don’t ask me why Houston is traveling to Corvallis in the middle of the season—I have no clue. Nonetheless, it’s happening, and it’s a nice opportunity for Houston to build on the momentum it gained after clobbering Colorado a couple of weeks ago.
I’ve long said Willy Fritz is one of the most underrated and under-appreciated head coaches in the country, and the quick work he’s done to reinvigorate the Cougars proves what a quality leader he is. He’s completely flipped that roster, starting at the top with former Texas A&M signal-caller Conner Weigman, who looks like a brand-new man under Fritz’s watch.
Through three games in 2025, Weigman already has more touchdown passes (4) than he did in 2024 (3) and has yet to throw an interception—something that plagued him in limited action last season. He must stay healthy to keep the momentum, as injuries derailed his time in College Station and could derail Houston’s season if they return.
A win over Oregon State wouldn’t necessarily signal Big 12 title contention, but it would keep Houston on track as it prepares for an intense home bout against Texas Tech on October 4.
Prediction: Houston wins and covers -13.5.
Rice (3-1, 1-0 American)
@ Navy – 2:30 PM CT – CBS Sports Network
If you haven’t watched Rice this season, I implore you to at least catch the highlights of a game. The Owls are fun, and I want people to know that.
Winning at Rice is difficult. Because of rigorous academic standards, the level of talent the Owls can recruit differs from what others in the state can attract. So when the job opened after last season, Rice went in a different direction and hired a coach accustomed to building programs unconventionally.
First-year head coach Scott Abell has revitalized a historic program that has rarely been successful in its 111 years. His option-attack offense—similar to the triple-option used by service academies like Army and Navy—neutralizes the talent gap. Through four games, it has done exactly that.
Rice is 3-1, and according to CBS Sports, it’s the first time since 1967 that a Rice coach has won three of his first four games in his debut season. The job Abell has done so far is extraordinary, but it’s not finished. Navy, with its own quality option offense, stands in the way of 4-1. It could be an immovable-object-meets-unstoppable-force matchup, likely low-scoring and decided by time of possession and field position. If you like smash-mouth football, Rice–Navy is for you.
Prediction: Navy wins, but Rice covers +14.5.
SMU (2-2, 0-0 ACC)
BYE
The Mustangs are off this week, and they need it. Few teams have disappointed more relative to expectations than Rhett Lashlee’s SMU. From making the College Football Playoff in its first ACC season to starting 2-2 with losses to former Southwest Conference foes Baylor and TCU, the falloff has been steep. Add a middling performance against first-year FBS school Missouri State, and the start to 2025 has been an unmitigated letdown.
All is not lost. After the bye, SMU faces a manageable ACC slate—Syracuse, Stanford, Clemson, and Wake Forest. None are guaranteed wins, but all are winnable.
TCU (3-0, 0-0 Big 12)
@ Arizona State – 8 PM CT – FOX (Friday)
For more on TCU’s crucial clash with the reigning Big 12 champions, check out this week’s episode of Bleav in TCU, where my friend and co-host Zion Trammel and I broke down the matchup. I also discussed it on Seth’s College Football Corner with Carson Wersal on Wednesday.
With a win against the Sun Devils, TCU could solidify itself as a Big 12 contender. Voters are noticing: the AP Poll moved the Horned Frogs into the Top 25 for the first time since early 2023. Beating Arizona State, which took Texas to the brink in last season’s CFP, would turn more heads.
To do it, Josh Hoover and the TCU offense need points, and that hasn’t been a problem. The Horned Frogs average 41.67 points per game, and Hoover averages 333.33 passing yards a contest. Still, Arizona State’s defense might be the best TCU has faced this season, so a peak performance is required.
Heisman buzz surrounds Hoover, and deservedly so. He ranks 25th nationally in passing yards (1,000) and is coming off a five-touchdown performance against SMU. I don’t usually jump into Heisman talk this early, but Hoover’s play may force the issue.
Go Frogs. Please win tonight.
Prediction: TCU wins and covers +2.5.
Texas (3-1, 0-0 SEC)
BYE
How good must it have felt for Texas to finally turn in a strong performance? Sure, it was only Sam Houston on the other side of that 55–0 score, but a dominant win is still a dominant win.
Arch Manning finally looked the part. His throwing motion was cleaner, the ball came out with more zip, and the confidence we’ve seen in those Warby Parker ads finally showed on the field.
If Manning keeps playing like this, Texas has real upside. I said it in the preseason and it still stands: if the offense comes close to last year’s level, the Longhorns can win a national championship. That defense is too good to waste.
Texas A&M (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
vs. Auburn – 2:30 PM CT – ESPN
Through four weeks, Texas A&M has been the most impressive Texas program. The Aggies took a huge step by beating Notre Dame on the road and now look to parlay that into SEC wins, starting tomorrow with Auburn.
A&M’s receivers are among the best in the country. The duo of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion can challenge any defense. All they need is a quarterback to deliver, and so far Marcel Reed has been up to the task—albeit a bit inefficiently; he completed just 45.9% of his passes in the Notre Dame game.
The Aggies have had two weeks to prepare for an Auburn team reeling from last Saturday’s officiating controversy against Oklahoma. Should Auburn come out unprepared, Texas A&M should have the upper hand. We’ve seen past Aggie teams falter in similar spots, but Mike Elko appears different and leaves no stone unturned.
Auburn’s offensive line struggled mightily against a powerful Oklahoma front, surrendering nine sacks. Some were on quarterback Jackson Arnold for holding the ball too long, but if Texas A&M’s front seven shows up, it could feast in the backfield all afternoon.
Prediction: Texas A&M wins and covers -6.5.
Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)
BYE
The consensus Big 12 favorite is off this week after taking down Utah last Saturday. With key injuries—including starting quarterback Behren Morton—the break should help.
Texas Tech’s offseason spending spree appears to be paying off. The Red Raiders are beating opponents by an average of 40.75 points, and with an “easier” Big 12 schedule—they have only one team currently ranked in the AP Top 25 left—there’s a chance they could cruise into Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game. Of course, football seasons rarely follow a script, so uncertainty remains, but for now everything looks bright in Lubbock.