The Ultimate Big 12 Preseason Poll
There are too many teams in this dang conference. Let's rank them.
Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark announced the other day that the conference would be doing away with its annual preseason poll for football starting this season. Here’s his explanation for the change:
“I think there’s no value. And I also feel that with the transfer portal and with roster management . . . as you build that roster, no one knows what they really have. They know what they have on paper, but it hasn’t played out.”
He also mentioned that he believed the perception that the poll provided hurt some members of the conference as the season played out.
“I think [the poll] disadvantaged Arizona State last year,” he said. “They were picked 16th. And I think that hurt them.”
While that may be all well and good for Yormark, that doesn’t apply to yours truly. Sure, perception might be reality for some viewers of college football, but for me? Nah. I’ve got all my blind spots covered (allegedly).
With the conference realignment that’s occurred over the past several years, the Big 12 now features a whopping 16 schools in football. It’s still weird, and it’ll always be weird. For the most part, though, pretty much every conference in collegiate athletics is unrecognizable from what it was just five years ago, so this is not a Big 12-exclusive problem.
Conference size aside, the Big 12 is poised to once again be one of, if not the most, competitive conferences in the country. Don’t get it twisted—most competitive does not mean best. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that out of the Power 4 conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12), the Big 12 probably ranks last. That might matter to some, but to this Big 12 homer, I couldn’t care less. The conference is a blast to watch, and the entertainment value that this group of schools brings overcomes any sort of pride that might come alongside multiple College Football Playoff berths.
As with all my rankings and polls, the most important data point is vibes. Recruiting rankings and returning production are great, yes, but can a school provide the feelings necessary to capture America’s hearts? If not, then I’m sorry.
I jest only slightly. The Big 12 has so much parity that correctly predicting who will come out on top in the end is a crapshoot anyway. Just look at last season with Arizona State. The Sun Devils were picked to finish last but ended up winning the whole thing and came inches away from beating Texas in the College Football Playoff. Who knows what’s going to happen when the teams actually hit the gridiron?
I think that’s a good note to start all of this with. Most of this is just me throwing my hands up and hoping that things play out the way I predict them to. Because, in the end, the Big 12 is the definition of chaos.
If you’d like to hear more surrounding my preseason rankings for the Big 12, listen (and download) to the latest episode of Bleav in TCU.
16. Arizona
Brent Brennan’s inaugural season in Tucson was a disappointment. After the program appeared to be heading in a great direction following 2023’s 10-3 campaign that featured an Alamo Bowl victory over Oklahoma, the Wildcats took a major step back that I believe will continue into 2025.
New offensive coordinator Seth Doege might shake things up a little bit, but the talent deficiency on the roster will just be too much for Arizona to handle in what’s poised to be a competitive Big 12.
Vibes Rating: 2/10
15. UCF
Scott Frost is back, and he’s back with some controversial comments regarding his old job.
Frost was the man at the helm when UCF soared the highest it ever has back in 2016 and 2017. Those fantastic seasons led him to take the head coaching gig at his alma mater, Nebraska, where he notoriously flamed out faster than Johnny Storm in the Atlantic Ocean. At Big 12 media days, Frost alluded to the fact that you can’t win a national championship at Nebraska, which is quite rich given that he himself did it as a player back in 1997.
Anyway, can Frost lead the Knights back to the glory days in the new Big 12 in 2025? Probably not. The roster that former head coach Gus Malzahn left him is quite bad, and I don’t see a path to contention for UCF for at least the next two years.
Vibes Rating: 2/10
14. West Virginia
Speaking of former head coaches coming back and taking their old jobs, Rich Rodriguez is back in Morgantown! Unlike Frost, Rodriguez didn’t take time on the podium to lambast his old stomping grounds. Unfortunately for West Virginia, however, the outlook for 2025 might be just as bleak.
What elevates the Mountaineers for me over the Knights is perseverance. If that sounds weird, let me explain. For some reason, West Virginia football always finds a way to be in the mix. It might not be at the top of the ladder, but it’ll darn sure be fighting for a bowl bid. Also, Morgantown is just a tough, tough place to play. I wouldn’t want to go there under any circumstances, even if the home team is lackluster.
Vibes Rating: 3.89/10
13. Houston
For my money, Willie Fritz is one of the best head coaches in the nation. His work at Tulane was extraordinary, and while his first season at Houston was nothing to write home about—the Cougars went 4-8 and 3-6 in conference play—there might be some hope on the horizon for 2025.
Texas A&M transfer Connor Weigman has arrived on the scene. Will his big-name status be enough to propel Houston toward new heights? Probably not, but it definitely doesn’t hurt. Weigman is extremely talented, but as A&M fans know firsthand, his inability to consistently be on the football field is a massive downer. Should he stay healthy, Houston should definitely improve this season. If he doesn’t, then I have no clue.
Vibes Rating: 4.21/10
12. Cincinnati
This season is a make-or-break year for Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield. After taking the job following the conclusion of 2022-23, Satterfield’s team has gone 3-9 and 5-7. For a school that reached the College Football Playoff during this decade, that’s frankly unacceptable.
Listen, Cincinnati is not a program that’s expected to compete for championships every single season, but what former head coach Luke Fickell built there should not have been dismantled as quickly as it was. If Satterfield can’t produce a winning football team during 2025, then he is probably out the door.
Vibes Rating: 4.5/10
11. Colorado
Deion Sanders, health problems aside, is still in Boulder, but Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are not. Answering the question of what Colorado football will look like in this new era is almost impossible. For what seems like forever, Sanders has coached teams that featured either Hunter or his son Shedeur. Now that they’re gone, what’s the formula?
I have no idea, and a lot of the people surrounding the sport don’t seem to have any clue either. All that we know is that Sanders has been successful every step of the way. Will this new chapter derail the experiment, though? Only time will tell.
A quarterback battle is on the horizon with top recruit Julian Lewis and transfer Kaidon Salter. It’ll be interesting to see who wins that duel and how either QB stacks up against the rest of the conference’s best.
Vibes Rating: 5/10
10. Oklahoma State
How about the disaster-fest that was the Oklahoma State campaign last year? The Cowboys had reached a whopping 18 (2006-2023) consecutive bowl games prior to 2024’s collapse, and head coach Mike Gundy is the main reason.
But now there’s uncertainty surrounding the longtime head man. The drama is palpable, and if the Cowboys suck again, then Gundy might be out the door, and not by his own accord.
All that being said, they have to be better than they were last season, right? There’s just no way it can be that bad.
Vibes Rating: 5.1/10
9. Kansas
The two biggest things that Kansas has going for it this season are that Jalon Daniels is back and that their home stadium is done being renovated. Not getting to play any games in Lawrence last year might’ve prohibited a talented Jayhawks team from fully reaching the potential we all thought, but now that David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium is all nice and fresh, I have high hopes.
What Lance Leipold has been able to do with the Kansas football program will be studied for years. The Jayhawks were once the laughingstock of the power conferences but now stand tall alongside other members of the Big 12. At number nine, I firmly believe that Kansas is in that tier of teams that could very well compete for a conference title once everything is said and done.
Vibes Rating: 5.87/10
8. Iowa State
The Cyclones are coming off the heels of the best season in program history. Eleven wins, a victory in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and a top-15 ranking in the final AP Poll of the year. Matt Campbell, you are a wizard.
For all the success that 2024 brought, Iowa State’s status as a developmental program hinders their ceiling for 2025. Most of the production from last season departed in the offseason, and now a fresh new batch of faces enters the limelight. Will those players be able to elevate themselves the same way the previous group did? Perhaps. What’s more likely is that Iowa State regresses backward for a time. That doesn’t mean that competitiveness is off the table—I have the Cyclones here at No. 8 for a reason—but there’s definitely not as much confidence this time around as there was last.
Vibes Rating: 6.4/10
7. BYU
Had I been doing this poll a couple weeks ago, BYU would’ve probably been in the top five. Now that the news regarding Jake Retzlaff’s departure has fully surfaced, my opinion on the Cougars’ ability to compete this season has dropped somewhat.
Retzlaff was not a great quarterback by any means, but he was serviceable, and sometimes that’s enough. The backup QB situation is not fantastic in Provo, hence my hesitations. They’ll still be a good football team—the coaching staff and the veteran group of players should be enough to buoy them towards competitiveness. Without a solid quarterback room, however, things become especially more difficult.
Vibes Rating: 6.5/10
6. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders put their money where their mouth was this past offseason. Texas Tech spent money.
The number two ranked transfer portal class in the nation is heading to Lubbock this season, and the hopes of the program finally making a dent in the national conversation are well and good in West Texas. It’s amazing what a group of Texas oil billionaires can do with their free time.
Still, this year’s group of portal players was not as good as previous iterations, so my opinions on the “great” transfer class that Texas Tech acquired are somewhat dampened. On top of that, procuring a bunch of hired guns opens up a can of worms that is sometimes not easily contained. Should the season start going sideways, are the mercenaries that the Red Raiders brought in willing to fight tooth and nail for Texas Tech?
Regardless of what I believe, Texas Tech fans think that this season is going to be the moment that people start paying attention to what’s going on in Lubbock. Personally, I could never make myself pay attention to anything that’s happening in that boring town.
Vibes Rating: 8/10
5. TCU
While the people at CBS Sports don’t seem to think that this season is a make-or-break year for Horned Frogs’ head coach Sonny Dykes, I’m inclined to say that it should be.
Ever since his magical inaugural run in Fort Worth that saw the program reach the College Football Playoff, and subsequently the national championship game, TCU football has regressed back down to the mean. 2023 was a disappointment as the team went 5-7 and missed a bowl. 2024, while an improvement in many regards—the Horned Frogs went 9-4 and won the New Mexico Bowl in dominant fashion over Louisiana—it still could’ve been so much better. Constant questionable coaching decisions and multiple head-scratching losses to conference bottom-dwellers like UCF and Houston tainted what otherwise could be looked at as a positive campaign.
Despite multiple key pieces departing, like Savion Williams and Jack Bech, the talent is there for TCU to compete for a Big 12 championship. Josh Hoover is entering his second season as the full-time starting quarterback and should be completely acclimated to offensive coordinator Kendal Briles’ system. Evan McAlister could’ve declared for the draft but instead decided to stay one more year as he tries to lead the receiving corps for the Frogs.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Andy Avalos should have the troops ready to go as any uncertainty about the success of his new scheme should be done and dusted heading into year two.
With my ranking the Horned Frogs fifth, they are firmly in the group of schools that have what it takes to triumph over the rest of the competition within the Big 12.
Vibes Rating: 8/10
4. Baylor
My heart hurts to say this, but Baylor is going to be good.
Dave Aranda was on the verge of getting fired last season had he not put up a Herculean effort to resurrect what was a program that was sleepwalking toward irrelevancy. Now, after an 8-5 campaign that featured wins over rivals TCU and Texas Tech, the Bears might just be back.
There’s an argument to be made that Sawyer Robertson is the best quarterback in the conference, and while I might not agree with it, I can see the merits of the conversation. Robertson, alongside star running back Bryson Washington, commands an offense that should be fairly potent.
Watch out for Baylor. The Bears are going to make a lot of Big 12 teams sweat this upcoming season.
Vibes Rating: 8.3/10
3. Utah
It’s easy to be down on the Utes following what was a disastrous opening season in the Big 12. Utah entered last season as the odds-on favorite to run the conference and instead fell flat on its face time and time again.
The main reason for the disappointment was the failure to identify that Cam Rising, the team’s starting quarterback at the start of the season, was going to be a liability when it came to getting hurt. Once Rising went down with a season-ending injury, the backup quarterback situation was dire, and Isaac Wilson just didn’t have what it took to lead a Power 4 program to victory.
As such, Utah floundered and never found its footing. But the page has been turned heading into 2025, and new quarterback and Preseason Big 12 Newcomer of the Year Devon Dampier looks poised to lead the Utes back to where they seek to be: conference championships.
The biggest question for Utah heading into this important season is whether the residue of last year’s disappointment will remain or if it’ll be shaken off quickly. If it’s dead and gone, then I expect Utah to firmly be in the conference championship hunt late in the season. If not, then perhaps another lackluster season is in the cards.
But hey, the vibes are always great up at Utah, so anything I say is moot and void in their eyes.
Vibes Rating: 9/10
2. Kansas State
Of all the top teams in the Big 12, Kansas State might be the one that I have the least to say about. The Wildcats are just a well-oiled machine that I trust to consistently be in the running for a spot in the conference championship game at the end of the season.
There’s really not much more to it. K-State will probably be pretty good this year.
Vibes Rating: 9.1/10
1. Arizona State
How could I not put the reigning Big 12 champions at the top of this list?
The Sun Devils are coming off a season where they won the Big 12 and were a 4th-and-14 away from beating Texas in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, with all of that happening after they were selected last in the preseason conference poll. How about them apples?
Head coach Kenny Dillingham is someone I trust completely with a football program. I mean, how could you not after what he’s done to resurrect what many call a sleeping giant in Arizona State? The Phoenix area is a hotbed of talent—all it took was the right guy in charge to channel it all correctly.
A lot of the core pieces from last year’s squad remain. Quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was named the Big 12 Preseason Offensive Player of the Year, and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson are back. The fanbase is completely rejuvenated and ready for more success. All it’s going to take is repeating the miracle that was 2024.
Despite my ranking them this high, odds are that Arizona State doesn’t win the conference. The Big 12 has the most parity of any league in the nation, and any team that I’ve ranked higher than nine realistically has a shot to compete for the championship. Heck, everybody does. If Arizona State, who, if you hadn’t heard already, was ranked last in the preseason a year ago, can win it all, then anybody can.
Vibes Rating: 10/10