Through six weeks of the college football season, the answer to who’s taking home the crown in the Southeastern Conference is about as clear as a Jimbo Fisher offensive game plan. Ask 15 people who they think will win the league, and you’ll probably get six or seven different answers. That’s how crowded things are at the top.
Everyone loves to talk about how the Big 12 is the most chaotic league in college football, and while that’s been true in recent years, I’d argue that in 2025 it’s actually the SEC that’s the wild one. Every Saturday feels like a toss-up, which is a testament to the sheer depth of talent across the conference.
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+, eight teams have at least a five percent chance to win the SEC: Ole Miss (17%), Alabama (15.5%), Oklahoma (15.5%), Missouri (11.7%), Texas A&M (9.9%), Georgia (7.3%), Tennessee (6%), and LSU (5.7%). Vanderbilt sits just below that line at 3.3%, with Texas in tenth at 2.8%. If you’d told me before the season that Vanderbilt would have better title odds than Texas in Week 7, I’d have had an aneurysm. My golly, that’s stunning.
Of those eight contenders, Alabama stands out as the best team in the bunch. Since that opening-week loss to Florida State, the Crimson Tide have been surgical, and that was on full display Saturday against Vanderbilt. Ty Simpson looks every bit like a Heisman contender, firing darts to a loaded receiving corps featuring future pros like Ryan Williams. The only real hurdle is the schedule: road trips to Missouri and LSU, plus home dates with Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Auburn. That’s a gauntlet. But with the roster talent, especially at quarterback, and a coaching staff I’d argue is underrated, Alabama’s my pick to win the SEC right now.
Sure, Ole Miss technically has better odds, but that’s mostly because of the schedule. Other than back-to-back road trips to Oklahoma and Georgia, the Rebels close with South Carolina, The Citadel (huh?), Florida, and Mississippi State. They should be favored in all of those if things go as expected. But this is Ole Miss, not Ohio State. Would it really shock anyone if the Rebels, led by a backup quarterback who was at Division II Ferris State last year, tripped up somewhere along the way? It sure wouldn’t shock me. Lane Kiffin’s got a good team in Oxford, but I’m not convinced it’s a championship team.
Oklahoma’s title hopes hinge entirely on John Mateer’s health. If he’s good to go after his hand surgery, the Sooners absolutely have the defense and playmakers to make a run. But with his timeline still up in the air, I’m hesitant to buy in completely. If he’s back soon, though, watch out.
Then there’s Texas A&M. Why is nobody talking about this team? Back-to-back dominant SEC wins and the national conversation is crickets. All the chatter’s about Texas losing in Gainesville. How about we start talking about teams that win games instead? If you’ve been reading me for a while, you know I’m smitten with this version of the Aggies. Mario Craver and KC Concepcion are my favorite receiver duo in the country, and Mike Elko might be my favorite coach in the sport. So yeah, I believe A&M can win the SEC; I just can’t figure out why nobody else seems to.
A few quick questions about the rest of the pack: Can Georgia stay on top despite having its weakest roster (relatively speaking) in years? Can Missouri finally grab its first SEC crown since joining in 2012? Can Tennessee or LSU bounce back from early losses and run the table? My answers: no, no, and no. Sorry.
Next week’s SEC slate is loaded with games that could go either way. Five matchups have spreads under 10 points1: Florida (+7.5) at Texas A&M, Alabama (-2.5) at Missouri, Oklahoma (+2.5) vs. Texas, Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn, and South Carolina (+9.5) at LSU. The other game is Arkansas (+12.5) at Tennessee. Upsets are practically baked in, making it even tougher to figure out who actually has a legitimate shot at the title.
So who’s winning the SEC? I can tell you who might, but the truth is, I have no clue. Everything in this sport can change on a whim, especially in a league as loaded and unpredictable as this one. The only way to find out is to play the games, and luckily, that’s exactly what’s happening this Saturday.
As of Monday, October 6.