There are dozens of teams that could have good college football seasons in 2026. There are probably 15 or so that could realistically make the College Football Playoff. Depending on how generous you want to get with the definition of “contender,” somewhere between six and 10 schools could convince themselves a national championship is possible.
But there are four teams I keep coming back to: Texas, Texas A&M, Indiana and LSU.
These aren’t necessarily the four best teams in college football, though some or all of them could eventually fit that description depending on how the season unfolds. No, they’re the four squads I believe will have the largest impact on how we experience this season. Texas A&M finally broke through under Mike Elko and now has to prove it wasn’t a one-year excursion toward greatness. Indiana is attempting to figure out what life looks like after improbably going 16-0 and climbing to the top of the college football mountain. LSU, meanwhile, handed Lane Kiffin the keys to the castle and told him that he can do whatever the heck he wants.
And then there’s Texas.
No team entered last season carrying more expectations, and few left it feeling quite as strange. The Longhorns were the preseason No. 1 team in America according to both the AP poll and myself but finished the season outside the College Football Playoff. Some early-season misgivings were to blame for the unfortunate fate of Steve Sarkisian’s team, including but not limited to Arch Manning’s slow buildup and the offense’s inability to run the ball worth a lick, but the year ended in a fine spot, leaving Texas fans with optimism heading into 2026.
Speaking of Texas fans, Travis Davidson has been a longtime friend and is perhaps the most passionate Longhorn supporter I know. I don’t believe there’s a human on the planet who thinks about Texas athletics quite as much as Travis. If anyone understands the mixture of optimism, anxiety and inevitable nonsense that comes with believing in this program, it’s him.
So, rather than spend the next several minutes pretending I understand the inner workings of the Texas psyche, I figured I’d go directly to the source.
Why should I believe Texas will actually live up to the hype this time?
Travis: This team will live up to it because they have a rare blend of experience, development and, of course, raw talent. Look at the players they’ve recruited over the past few years. Look at the transfer portal acquisitions. Look at the year the star players are in — they’re all off to the NFL after this year — and look at the coaching staff moves made this offseason.
This is what Sark has built toward, this is what the players have built toward, and the fans realize it.
Seth: I was driving the Texas bandwagon last year — I had the Longhorns ranked No. 1 in my preseason poll, and it took me a while to come off that take — and watched the wheels slowly fall off somewhere between Columbus and the middle of SEC play before everything seemed to even out toward the end. Still, it’s hard for me to get back on the bus after getting screwed over last year.
But Travis’ point about how last season ended is incredibly important. Texas looked much more like the team everyone expected by the time December rolled around, particularly Manning, and there’s still an absurd amount of talent on this roster, arguably more. While I’m not pretending 2025 didn’t happen, I’m just not sure it told us all that much about what Texas is going to be in 2026.
How much did the way Arch Manning finished last season change your opinion of him?
Travis: It was reassuring to see a stronger second half from him. My confidence in him is not bulletproof — he still struggled with accuracy and decision-making at times down the stretch — but the progression from Aug. 30 in Columbus, Ohio, to the Citrus Bowl is reason for optimism.
Seth: This is pretty much where I land with Arch, too. The beginning of last season was rough. Even the most casual of college football fans were taken aback by how average he appeared. But he got better. A lot better. And while that doesn’t automatically pencil him in as the Heisman winner, it does say a ton about how much growth there was from the first game of the season to the last.
What’s the biggest misconception people outside of Austin have about this Texas team?
Travis: I’m not sure it’s necessarily a misconception, but there seems to be so much focus on the passing game while skimming over the run game. All of Sark’s good offenses start with a solid run game. Until last year, he had a 1,000-plus-yard rusher every year that he has coached.
They went out and got Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers for a reason. The run game’s inefficiencies put so much pressure on Arch last year. Sark isn’t trying to ease that pressure on Arch by just forcing the passing game more than ever with new weapons; he’s easing it through the run game.
Seth: I’m glad Travis went here because the Arch conversation has continuously swallowed basically everything else about Texas for more than a year. He matters, obviously. Quarterbacks tend to be rather important to the operation.
But Texas has to be able to run the football. It absolutely has to. There are really no ifs, ands or buts about that claim. There were large stretches of last season when the rushing attack was inept, limiting how effective Arch and his stable of weapons could be. If that changes in 2026, watch out, world.
Is this actually a better team than last year’s, or have we just talked ourselves into Texas again?
Travis: Yes, it is better than last year’s team. In fairness, I bought the hype from last year’s team, but it was a young squad across the board. The 2026 Longhorns are stronger on both lines of scrimmage, deeper at every skill position except perhaps tight end and collectively more experienced.
Seth: On paper, this Longhorns squad might just be the most talented roster in the country. There are few holes. One has to believe that all these spectacular recruiting and transfer hauls would have to amount to some modicum of success, right? Right?
What scares you most about this team?
Travis: I am scared about how the depth will hold up throughout the brutal schedule: nine SEC games plus a nonconference game against Ohio State.
To spotlight a specific position: linebacker. Rasheem Biles will probably be one of the better players on the team, but behind him it’s a room full of transfers and young players. After Ty’Anthony Smith’s dismissal, the depth there is something to watch.
Seth: Texas’ schedule is nuts, frankly. The nonconference bout versus Ohio State hangs like a menacing cloud ready to unleash potential life-threatening floods, though it also presents a golden opportunity for the Longhorns to start building a résumé. Following the Buckeyes, Texas has to play Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M. All those teams are ranked in the top 25, and that doesn’t even mention the ones like Florida that are currently outside that group, if only barely. It’s a gauntlet, but if there’s any roster that can withstand it, I’d bet on Texas’.
At what point does Steve Sarkisian actually have to win the whole thing?
Travis: Based on what’s listed above, right now.
I am incredibly pro-Sark. His greatest critics must not have been around for the Strong and Herman years. Three consecutive 10-win seasons is remarkable, but everyone knows more is expected. Twice he fell short of playing for a national championship by a couple of plays.
From the start, he’s preached coming here to win championships. There’s a reason he’s so outward in his praise for this team. He knows what the expectations are, and that’s why he’s here and why he’s built this team to what it is in 2026.
Seth: I agree with Travis here, and I think Texas fans occasionally need to remember what life looked like before Sarkisian showed up. In a word, it was brutal.
Now, obviously, none of that means Sark gets a lifetime achievement award and everyone goes home happy. This roster is good enough to win the whole thing. At some point, though, what if needs to turn into reality.
Who are you most excited to watch other than Arch?
Travis: While it was tempting to pick a wide receiver here, I’ll go with Colin Simmons. He’s a true matchup nightmare and is flying up the program leaderboard for career sacks. Twenty-one sacks through two years is remarkable.
In Will Muschamp’s defense, I’m curious how he’ll take advantage of his one-on-ones while also opening up opportunities for the rest of the defense.
Seth: I’ve always been on the Colin Simmons hype train, routinely calling him my favorite player in the country to watch. If Muschamp is able to fully unlock his potential, unleashing havoc on every offensive line Simmons and Texas face, then there’s little reason to doubt that the Longhorns’ defense will be anything but special in 2026.
Give me one completely irrational Texas prediction for 2026 that you nevertheless believe.
Travis: Ryan Wingo will lead the team in receiving yards.
Everyone is talking about Cam Coleman, and for good reason. It’s the cliché for having two great receivers — you can’t double them both. I think Wingo will get more one-on-ones, generate more yards after the catch and rack up a ton of yards from the quick passing game and screen game that Sark loves so much. There’s a legit chance both he and Coleman go over 1,000 yards.
Seth: To be honest, I don’t even know if the Ryan Wingo take is particularly irrational.
Texas has enough weapons that defenses aren’t going to be able to spend the entire day worrying about him. Cam Coleman is obviously at the forefront of this conversation, as he’s the standout transfer pickup and flat-out one of the best receivers, if not overall athletes, in the entire nation. But Wingo is talented in his own right, and I fully expect him to take that next step this season. If he does, then Travis’ prediction could very well come true.
Has Travis convinced me to jump aboard the Texas bandwagon? Unfortunately, he absolutely has.
Not only do I believe that the Longhorns have what it takes to win the SEC, something I picked in my preview for that conference the other day, but I see a world where a trip to the title game is not only a possibility but somewhat likely. Of course, all that hinges on several things going right, including Arch being a standout at his position and the running game coming back to life. There’s also the schedule of it all, though if Texas is as good as Travis and I seem to think it is, that can only be used as an excuse for so long.
So, yeah, Texas is going to be great. I’ve somehow ended up right back where I started a year ago, convinced the Longhorns have everything necessary to be one of the last teams standing.
I guess the joke’s on me if this turns out to be a total sham again.